This first installment of this interleague series gets underway on Friday with the Minnesota Twins hosting the St. Louis Cardinals at Target Field. MLB odds have Minnesota as a moderate -145 betting favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Cardinals vs. Twins prediction is bullish on the favorite, primarily due to the disparity in hitting ability.
Read on for my MLB picks for Friday, August 23.
Cardinals vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Twins -1.5 (+150 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The biggest gap in this matchup resides in the hitting differential. This season, the Minnesota Twins pace the St. Louis Cardinals in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
The Twins’ success at the plate is likely to continue against right-hander Andre Pallante, who is slated to take the mound for St. Louis. Pallante is 5-6 through 22 appearances on the mound this season with a fade-worthy 4.07 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as the right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate. On the other hand, right-hander David Festa gets the ball for Minnesota.
Entering this contest in good form, Festa boasts a 2.38 ERA over his past five starts. That just leaves the bullpen, which is yet another advantage for the Twins.
Their relief staff outranks the Cardinals’ in both FIP and xFIP. Finally, I believe there is more value in backing Minnesota on the run line at +150, considering that 13 of its past 15 wins have come by at least a two-run differential.
Cardinals vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Twins -1.5
David Festa Over 4.5 strikeouts
Trevor Laranch Over 0.5 hits
If he qualified, Festa would rank in the top half of the league in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates. He has recorded at least five strikeouts in five of his six career starts.
We also need run production to cover this line, which brings us to Trevor Laranch.
Laranch boasts a .253 BA this year and ranks in the 81st percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and average exit velocity.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Twins odds
Cardinals vs Twins live odds
Cardinals vs Twins opening odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis +120 | Minnesota -145
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-185) | Minnesota -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Cardinals vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a -145 favorite and remains at that price as of Friday morning.
- I project this line to further widen due to the Twins’ superiority in so many different categories.
- The total opened at 8.5 and also remains at that number.
- I believe this total is more likely to move to 9 than 8, given that both starting pitchers possess an ERA north of 4.20.
Cardinals vs Twins trend
Thirteen of Minnesota’s past 15 wins have come by at least a two-run differential. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Twins.
Cardinals vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, 8-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Andre Pallante (5-6, 4.07 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | David Festa (2-2, 4.96 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Twins latest injuries
Cardinals vs Twins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
