The Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox wrap up their weekend series at Fenway Park on Sunday Night Baseball.
My Cubs vs. Red Sox predictions target Boston starting pitcher Tanner Houck, who has been extremely effective in the early portion of the season.
Read on to see how Houck will take care of business with my MLB picks for Sunday, April 28.
Cubs vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Tanner Houck to record the win (+145 at bet365)
My analysis
The Boston Red Sox bludgeoned the Chicago Cubs 17-0 and are listed as -135 favorites on the moneyline for the final MLB game of the week. Part of this is the home-field advantage of playing at Fenway Park, but the starting pitching matchup tilts the scales as Boston right-hander Tanner Houck squares off against Hayden Wesneski.
Houck has emerged as a potential front-line starter in Boston, posting a 1.65 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 32 2/3 innings across five starts. While those numbers will eventually regress, he's been effective at limiting the long ball (just one homer allowed) and free passes (a career-best 3.9% walk rate).
He's fully stretched out, throwing at least 91 pitches in each of his last four starts while pitching into the sixth in all five outings (completing that frame four times). This longevity puts him in a position to record a win each time out.
With Wesneski countering him for the Cubs, he'll have the advantage once again. The 26-year-old right-hander will be making his first start of the season after coming out of the bullpen in his two appearances to date. He's been deployed as a starter in the past but is the kind of pitcher who operates more like a swingman, starting when needed and being used in relief when the rotation is healthy and rested.
He opened last season in the rotation but moved to the bullpen before the end of May and didn't throw more than 3 1/3 innings after July 1. While he's been capable of pitching into the seventh inning on occasion, he isn't stretched out to a starter's workload. Because of this, my initial best bet was the Under on 4.5 strikeouts... but that market has been pulled.
The Cubs bullpen has been overworked and bad all year. Their 111 1/3 innings is the sixth-most in MLB and the 4.61 ERA and 4.53 BB/9 rank among baseball's worst. Even if the Red Sox don't do damage against Wesneski, he's likely giving way to a rocky relief corps earlier than a typical starter would.
This all builds up to Houck standing a great chance to grab the win, and I'll happily take the number at +145 instead of the straight moneyline at -135.
Cubs vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Tanner Houck to record the win
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 hits
Rafael Devers' bat was fairly quiet in Saturday's big win, going 1-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts. He was pulled early, though, as the game got out of hand. He matches up well with Wesneski, as lefty hitters posted a .986 OPS against him last season.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has had a better start to his latest MLB stint, going 4-for-10 since being recalled, but he hits at the bottom of Chicago's lineup and was absolutely atrocious (0-for-14) in his brief appearance in the majors last season. If Houck can again limit walks and keep baserunners from reaching, PCA will have fewer at-bats — fewer opportunities to hit — as a result.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Red Sox odds
Cubs vs Red Sox live odds
Cubs vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-205) | Boston -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Chicago +100 | Boston -120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Cubs vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Money has come in on the Red Sox since opening, with the Boston moneyline ranging from -135 to -163.
- After Saturday's 17-run onslaught (all from the Red Sox), the total has gone from 8.5 to 9.5.
- The Over 9.5 can be found at even money, but that could be a tall order with one of Boston's best starters on the mound.
- The Over has cashed in each of the first two games of this series.
Cubs vs Red Sox trend
The Chicago Cubs have only covered the First Five Innings (F5) Run Line in six of their last 17 games (-8.08 Units / -37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Red Sox
Cubs vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Hayden Wesneski (2-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (3-2, 1.65 ERA) |
Cubs vs Red Sox latest injuries
Cubs vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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