The opening game of this intracity series gets underway on Friday evening with the Chicago White Sox hosting the Chicago Cubs at Guaranteed Rate Field. MLB odds have the Cubs as a moderate -154 favorite, while the total sits at 8.
My Cubs vs. White Sox prediction favors a low-scoring affair, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for August 9.
Cubs vs White Sox prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Right-hander Jameson Taillon takes the mound for the Chicago Cubs, and he should be a good candidate to back. Taillon is 7-6 this season with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally strong as he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Following Taillon is a strong bullpen that ranks eighth in ERA and 12th in FIP.
Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox hand the ball to left-hander Garrett Crochet. Already an ace at 25-years-old, Crochet boasts a 3.19 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP through 23 starts this year.
His analytics are even stronger, considering that the southpaw boasts a 2.56 xERA and ranks in the 95th percentile in xBA and 97th percentile in strikeout rate.
Both starting pitchers are worth backing, and I’m not concerned about too many fireworks on Friday as both lineups rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
Cubs vs White Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Garrett Crochet Over 5.5 strikeouts
Luis Robert Under 0.5 hits
Another way to back the Under and a strong Crochet performance is through the prop market. One of the premier strikeout artists in the league, the southpaw ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate.
If we are backing the Under, then another correlated outcome would be for some hitters to struggle at the dish. A good fade candidate is Luis Robert, who possesses a fade-worthy .125 BA through eight career plate appearances against Taillon.
Entering this contest in particularly poor form, Robert sports a meager .127 BA over his past 14 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs White Sox odds
Cubs vs White Sox live odds
Cubs vs White Sox opening odds
- Run line: Chicago (NL) -1.5 (+106) | Chicago (AL) +1.5 (-128)
- Moneyline: Chicago (NL) -154 | Chicago (AL) +130
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Cubs vs White Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cubs opened as a -154 favorite and remain at that price as of Friday morning.
- While the White Sox are the most fade-worthy team in baseball, I don’t think that line grows much wider in a game that features Crochet on the mound.
- The total opened at 8 and also remains at that price. I think this number only goes down based on my best bet analysis.
Cubs vs White Sox trend
There have been eight or fewer total runs scored in three of the White Sox’s past four games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. White Sox.
Cubs vs White Sox game info
| Location: | Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, 8-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, NBCSCH |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (7-6, 3.25 ERA) |
| White Sox starting pitcher: | Garrett Crochet (6-8, 3.09 ERA) |
Cubs vs White Sox latest injuries
Cubs vs White Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
