The Arizona Diamondbacks are rocking and rolling, taking the first of three on the road against the Cleveland Guardians on Monday to make it 10 wins in 12 games.
Now, they’ll send offseason acquisition Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill for his first start in a Diamondbacks uniform after missing the first four months of the season due to a shoulder injury. His long layoff doesn't exactly bode well for limiting runs in our Diamondbacks vs. Guardians predictions.
Let's get right into the latest MLB odds and MLB picks for Tuesday, August 6.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
We haven’t seen Eduardo Rodriguez pitch in a game of any kind since spring training after the lefty chose to rehab his shoulder at the Arizona Diamondbacks' complex. What we do know is that Rodriguez struggled in the spring to an 8.00 ERA in nine innings, allowing three homers in four outings.
Rodriguez stayed healthy last year after an abbreviated 2022 campaign, but he pitched more to contact in his two years with the Detroit Tigers, posting a .248 expected batting average in the process. This sat just a hair above the league average but was significantly higher than the marks he’d been posting in Boston.
The Cleveland Guardians may not hit the ball all that hard, but they’ve slugged anyway with a 13th-ranked .159 isolated power this season and have brought that up to .179 over the past two weeks. They continue to exhibit excellence in putting the ball in play and rank eighth in wRC+ vs. lefties compared to 16th against righties. That gap only figures to widen after adding a lefty killer in Lane Thomas at the deadline.
Cleveland's offensive outlook here should be strong against a pitcher who’s yet to work in a game this year even at the minor-league level, but we can’t be so sure Ben Lively will thrive against a strong Arizona offense either.
While the Diamondbacks have consistently put the ball on the ground, they’ve excelled against fly-ball arms with a .744 OPS to rank eighth in baseball and sit just 15th in the same category against ground-ballers.
Lively allows an extreme 31.1% of batted balls to travel through the air, and that doesn’t sound so appetizing against a Diamondbacks team that’s sporting a ridiculous .275 ISO over the last two weeks and now gets to hit in a park that’s been much friendlier for home runs this year than in years past.
Get ready to see some runs.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Eugenio Suarez to hit a home run
Ben Lively Under 4.5 strikeouts
I expect someone to leave the yard here against Lively, who’s allowed a whopping 17 long balls in 19 starts, and Eugenio Suarez is the man I’ll back. The slugger has five homers over the last two weeks to tie for second on the team and he’s clubbed seven off fly-ball pitchers to rank second in this lineup with a solid .814 OPS.
Then, with the heavy lifting taken care of, I’ll back Lively to go Under 4.5 strikeouts for a fourth time in six starts. Arizona is striking out at a minuscule 14.5% clip over the last two weeks to lead baseball and now ranks sixth-best for the season, so it should have no issues getting the ball back in play against a middling punchout pitcher.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians odds
Diamondbacks vs Guardians live odds
Diamondbacks vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-220) | Cleveland -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Arizona -105 | Cleveland -115
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-125) | Under 7.5 (+105)
Diamondbacks vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Guardians have moved out to -115 on the moneyline after opening at -110 at several books. They briefly dipped as low as -105.
- DraftKings reports that 70% of the bets and a firm 89% of the moneyline handle are on the Guardians.
- Despite the line movement, 84% of the tickets and 80% of the money are on the Over.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games (+16.05 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Guardians.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, BSGL |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Eduardo Rodriguez (13-9, 3.30 ERA - 2023 stats) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Ben Lively (10-6, 3.42 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Guardians weather
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