The Boston Red Sox host the Arizona Diamondbacks in MLB action on Saturday afternoon.
Both of these clubs have been Over machines, and my Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox predictions for today are betting on another high-scoring contest.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this interleague showdown on August 24.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Over 9.5 (-114 at BetRivers)
My analysis
The Arizona Diamondbacks are sending Zac Gallen to the mound today while the Boston Red Sox respond with Kutter Crawford. Since the start of July, Gallen has pitched to a 5.24 ERA with an OBA of .293 over nine starts. Meanwhile, Crawford has an 8.90 ERA and has surrendered 14 home runs in his last six outings.
These teams are tied for second in the majors in batting average (.261) and OPS (.767), and they've been even better lately. Since the All-Star break, the D-Backs have an OPS of .860 and are plating 6.5 runs per game, while the Red Sox have an OPS of .820 and are averaging 5.75 runs per game.
These lineups are also stacked with left-handed hitters (six lefties for Boston and as many as seven for Arizona), which will create plenty of platoon advantages against the right-handed starters.
The struggling bullpens for both sides are another reason to like the Over. Arizona's relievers are 21st in the majors in ERA (4.10) and 26th in WHIP (1.35) while Boston's bullpen has an MLB-worst 6.33 ERA since the start of July.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
Kutter Crawford Under 4.5 strikeouts
Rafael Devers is one of the best hitters in the world, ranking sixth in the majors in slugging percentage (.575) while racking up 252 total bases in 114 games. The left-handed Devers also slugs an incredible .668 with the platoon advantage and slashes .306/.391/.597 at home. Gallen is in the the Bottom 20th percentile of pitchers in exit velocity and the Bottom 30th percentile in hard hit rate while Devers is in the Top 3% of hitters in both categories.
Crawford has logged fewer than 4.5 punchouts in six of his last eight starts. The D-backs strike out at the fifth-lowest rate in the majors (20%) and that number has slimmed to 18.1% since the All-Star break.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox odds
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox live odds
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona -110 | Boston -110
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-205) | Boston -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the home side, shifting the Red Sox from a pick'em to -120.
- The Diamondbacks are coming off a 12-2 win against Boston last night and they've now gone 28-9 in their last 37 games.
- Despite mashing at the plate during the second half of the season, the BoSox have gone just 14-18 due to their struggling pitching staff.
- The Red Sox pitching has gotten progressively worse this year. They had an MLB-best 2.62 ERA in April/March and have an MLB-worst 5.68 ERA in August.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox trend
The Over is 48-25 in Arizona's last 73 games (+23.55 Units / 29% ROI) while going 45-24 in Boston's previous 69 contests (+20.65 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs Red Sox.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
ARID, NESN
|
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Zac Gallen (9-6, 3.85 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (8-10, 4.25 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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