The undefeated and reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium in the first meeting of the year between the AFC West rivals Sunday, November 10.
While Denver has been one of the biggest surprises through nine weeks, my Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks call for the Kansas City offense to put points on the board per usual in Week 10.
Broncos vs Chiefs prediction
My best bet
Chiefs Over 24.5 points (-118 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs have scored 26 or more points in each home game with an average of 27.3 per. Kansas City has an excellent offensive line ranking fifth in pass-block win rate and first in run-block win rate while also checking out with respective PFF grades of sixth in run blocking and third in pass blocking.
I anticipate the Chiefs mitigating the aggressive Denver Broncos pass rush, having success on offense and putting points on the board.
The Chiefs pace the league in offensive success rate and rank ninth in both offensive DVOA and EPA per play. I also value kicker Harrison Butker sporting a 92.3% field-goal percentage over the past two years to rarely leave points on the board.
Additionally, I don't expect the weather at Arrowhead Stadium to have a meaningful impact, and I also value the Kansas City defense going up against a rookie quarterback.
The Chiefs should be able to hold Bo Nix and the Broncos offense in check. Denver is 24th in offensive DVOA and has the sixth-lowest EPA per play, while Kansas City sports respective third and 10th defensive ranks.
It’s a recipe for multiple short fields for K.C. quarterback Patrick Mahomes, in addition to potential takeaways and even defensive scores.
I’m also not convinced the Denver defense is as good as its impressive metrics. Call me skeptical, but I don’t think the Broncos allowing the third-lowest EPA per play, ranking seventh in defensive DVOA, and grading fifth in PFF defense grade is sustainable.
The Baltimore Ravens had no problem putting 41 points on the board while posting the highest yards per play and EPA per play against the Broncos last week, after all, and this is another step up in class for the Denver defense.
Broncos vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Chiefs Over 24.5 points
Javonte Williams Over 37.5 rushing yards
Justin Watson Over 15.5 receiving yards
Broncos back Javonte Williams has 40 or more rushing yards with double-digit carries in five of his past six games while averaging a respectable 4.3 per tote. He only received six carries in the outlier against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, and Williams has also led the Denver backfield in offensive snaps in all nine games.
Additionally, I also value the Denver offensive line coming together and run blocking better as the season has progressed. The Broncos averaged a 48.2 PFF run blocking grade through the first three weeks of the season, and they’ve posted a 66.1 grade the past six games, which also aligns with the highlighted improved stretch from Williams.
Denver has also climbed to sixth in rushing success rate over the past six games compared to ranking 23rd through the first three weeks.
Chiefs wide receiver Justin Watson is a player I often target in this market because he’s always carrying a low receiving yards total despite his consistent role in the offense. Watson has also caught six of seven targets for 76 yards the past two weeks to soar way over this 15.5 yard benchmark in each.
Additionally, there’s also potential Watson has a splash of statistical correction ahead of his yards per reception and aDoT considering his much higher numbers in each of his first two seasons with the Chiefs.
| YPR | aDOT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19.2 | 19.3 |
| 2023 | 16.7 | 17.9 |
| 2024 | 13.2 | 12.1 |
As noted, I expect negative regression ahead for the Denver stop unit, too.
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Broncos vs Chiefs odds
Broncos vs Chiefs live odds
Broncos vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: Denver +9.5 (-110) | Kansas City (-9.5)
- Moneyline: Denver +425 | Kansas City -550
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Broncos vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been notable action to the Denver side of this spread. Kansas City had a look-ahead number of -9.5 before opening at -9 at BetMGM on Monday.
- The Chiefs are a -7.5 home favorite as of Friday afternoon, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a -8 spread considering other shops have already made that move.
- This 41.5 total is the lowest of the season for the Chiefs, and it’s even ticked down from the opening 42.5 at BetMGM.
- As discussed, I’m anticipating the Chiefs having offensive success, but I’m not convinced the Broncos will.
Broncos vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Kansas City Chiefs have scored 26 or more points in each home game this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chiefs.
Broncos vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-10, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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