The Arizona Diamondbacks seek their second consecutive series sweep of an AL foe when they meet the Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of this three-game series.
Arizona's bats have boomed during this series, but my Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks expect to see some regression from those bats today.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Under 9.5 (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
Boston Red Sox starter Tanner Houck may have something to say about the Arizona Diamondbacks eyeing their second straight road series sweep. Houck has allowed 14 earned runs across his last five starts with 21 strikeouts and only three home runs across the last 29 2/3 innings.
He’s been especially good this season against left-handed lumber — striking out seven per nine with a .250 BABIP — and he could see as many as eight lefty bats in the Diamondbacks lineup today.
The D-backs have scored 16 runs across the first two games of this series. That’s far above their third-best 5.22 runs per away game but their .286 BABIP suggests the Snakes may have been a bit lucky.
By comparison, the Red Sox offense has scored only three runs in this series but they do boast the top BABIP (.323) with the fifth-best wRC+ (112) but their 23% strikeout rate holds the Beantown boys to 4.62 runs per home game.
Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly is working his way back from a long injury layoff and a rough start against Tampa Bay. He served up six earned runs with a homer across five frames and eight earned runs in two starts across 10 frames since his return to the rotation.
Either way, we should expect to see some regression from the Arizona sticks considering how good Houck has been against lefties. It's also hard to back the Boston bats right now, especially when they’ve slashed only .167/.200/.417/.617 across 36 career at-bats against Kelly.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9.5
Diamondbacks moneyline
The Diamondbacks may struggle against Houck, but they’ll likely hit a gassed Red Sox bullpen — that bullpen has struggled across the past two weeks with a 29th-best 5.82 ERA and 1.47 home runs per nine frames.
Boston hasn’t won much at Fenway this season and is 2-6 across its past eight. Kelly is better than his numbers suggest and he should be able to take advantage of a Red Sox club that strikes out too much and strands a 28th-best 3.85 runners in scoring position per home game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox odds
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox live odds
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +1.5 (-170) | Boston -1.5 (+148)
- Run line: Arizona +110 | Boston -120
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Diamondbacks have cashed the moneyline in 59 of their last 95 games (+22.05 units / 18% ROI), with moneyline markets trading from +110 to +116.
- The Red Sox have only cashed the moneyline in 29 of their last 62 games at home (-11.55 units / -14% ROI) and are trading from -130 to -136.
- Over/Under markets are trading at 9.5 runs. Over 9.5 (-108) is your best price while Under 9.5 (-105) is the best option for Under bettors.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox trend
The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last six games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, NESN |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Merrill Kelly (3-0, 3.64 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (8-8, 3.01 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
