This NL West series gets underway on Friday evening with the Arizona Diamondbacks hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field. MLB odds have Los Angeles as a -135 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks predictions are optimistic on the Over, primarily due to the starting lineups.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to left-hander Clayton Kershaw, who is still attempting to figure things out since returning from injury. Through six starts, Kershaw possesses a 3.72 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
That ERA is strong, but the WHIP is more concerning when you also look at his underlying metrics. The southpaw, if he officially qualified, would rank in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate.
These woes are likely to continue against the Arizona Diamondbacks, as the left-hander sports a fade-worthy 8.74 ERA over his past three meetings with the NL West rivals. Following Kershaw is a bullpen that ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in both FIP and xFIP.
Not that Arizona’s is any better, considering that it also sits in the bottom 10 in both of those key categories. Meanwhile, the starting pitcher for the DBacks will be right-hander Zac Gallen.
Like Kershaw, Gallen ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. That just leaves the hitting, which is the biggest reason to look at the Over in this matchup.
Each team boasts a Top-10 mark in runs scored per game, so I expect a high-scoring affair tonight.
Shohei Ohtani prop pick
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 walks (-120 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Pitching to Shohei Ohtani is something that not many pitchers want to do. Not only does he lead Los Angeles in walks this season, but Ohtani also ranks in the 88th percentile among the entire league in walk rate.
This trend makes sense, considering that he is one of the most dangerous hitters on the planet. We will likely see this trend continue against Gallen, who has struggled with his command this season and ranks in the league's bottom half in walk rate.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 walks
Dodgers moneyline
If we are backing Ohtani to contribute to a high-scoring affair, then a correlated outcome would be for the Dodgers to also win this game. Kershaw currently outranks Gallen in xERA, walk rate, and barrel rate.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ bullpen trumps Arizona’s in ERA and xFIP. That just leaves the hitting, which is where the Dodgers can hang with anyone given their abundance of superstar talent.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks live odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -130 | Arizona +110
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+124) | Arizona +1.5 (-148)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Los Angeles opened at -130 and has since been bet up to -135.
- The Dodgers have hit the moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+6.65 Units / 18% ROI).
- The total opened at 8.5 and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- Los Angeles has hit the game total Over in 31 of its last 52 games (+10.45 Units / 18% ROI), while Arizona has cashed the game total Over in 51 of its last 78 contests (+24.30 Units / 28% ROI).
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks trend
There have been nine or more total runs scored in six of Los Angeles’ past eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 8-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet LA |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Clayton Kershaw (2-2, 3.72 ERA) |
| Angels starting pitcher: | Zac Gallen (10-6, 3.65 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks weather
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