After a narrow escape against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday night, the Los Angeles Dodgers will once again look to build on their lead in the National League West as we head into the final month of the season.
With a familiar face on the hill in Merrill Kelly, my Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks predictions like the favorites to pull out a W.
Find out why as I break down my Saturday, August 31 MLB picks.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Dodgers moneyline (-135 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers are up to ninth in wRC+ over the last two weeks as they continue to grow at the plate, getting many of their best bats back into the lineup in the past month. Now, they’ll see a familiar face in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly, who’s had a miserable time pitching to this team.
Kelly owns a 5.49 ERA against L.A. in 16 career starts, and in his last two games, he’s surrendered 10 runs in 11 innings. He’s making his eighth start back off the injured list here on Saturday, and so far, he’s been a bit fortunate to pitch around some loud contact.
Kelly’s expected BA stands at a poor .254, with an influx of fly balls bringing his expected slugging up to an unsightly .498. This poses a huge problem considering the Dodgers are slugging up a storm at the moment, with a .214 isolated power in the past 14 days.
The right-hander’s issues with walks, his depressed strikeout numbers, and his fly-ball approach will simply not work against a red-hot Dodgers team, even in a friendlier park.
On the flip side, Gavin Stone has had a stellar season as a mainstay in a fluctuating Dodgers rotation with a tidy 3.33 ERA, which has come as the result of a smattering of ground balls at a very skilled infield defense.
Arizona’s power numbers have come down a hair from the great heights they were at a month ago, and they’ve been highly contact-oriented, which should pose a problem with a master at pitching to contact who will have an ever-improving defense behind him.
I see too much working against Kelly and the Diamondbacks here and love the Dodgers as slim road favorites.
Shohei Ohtani pick: TEASER
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-135 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Shohei Ohtani is a solid 1-for-3 with a double off Kelly in his career, but that’s come along with a .454 xBA and .988 xSLG. It’s a limited sample size, but against fly-ball arms he’s hitting .293 to put him among the three best in the Dodgers’ order, and that’s come along with 16 homers.
Ohtani’s coming off a solid game, and nothing should change against a right-hander where he’s in a better platoon split. On top of that, it’s someone who pitches to a lot of contact and fly balls, so I feel confident in taking the total bases on Ohtani once again — something that’s hit in three of the last four games.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers moneyline
Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases
Gavin Stone 6+ strikeouts
The price on Ohtani almost everywhere is a steep one, so we’ll have to get creative here if we want to boost the odds up a bit.
I do think there’s a lot of value in playing up to six punchouts with Stone. The strikeouts are really beginning to come in bunches for the righty as he continues to grow into a great pitcher, and he’s now rung up six or more in his last three outings.
I expect Stone to hang around here, given the strength of his defense and the Diamondbacks’ slight slump, and while the Diamondbacks haven’t been striking out a lot this year, they’re almost up to 20% in the last two weeks of play.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks live odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -135 | Arizona +115
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+120) | Arizona +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Diamondbacks opened up at +117 here, and after a move down to +110, they’re back out above +115.
- L.A. has accounted for 74% of the moneyline bets at DraftKings, but just 58% of the handle.
- The opening line on the total was nine runs, and it’s since jumped up to 9.5 with steady action.
- A firm 62% of bettors are going with the Over here, with 78% of the money headed that way.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks trend
The Dodgers have hit the Over in 40 of their last 71 games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet LA, ARID |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Gavin Stone (11-5, 3.33 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Merrill Kelly (4-0, 3.98 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
