Dodgers vs Mets NLCS Game 4 Prop Bets: Yamamoto Gets Touched Up

Prop bet #1: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 earned runs allowed

-101 Caesars

It’s been a bumpy few weeks for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with the high of five scoreless innings in the NLDS decider against the San Diego Padres and the lows of lasting just three innings in two of his past four starts.

I’m predicting a Game 4 performance that falls between those two extremes. Yamamoto will have his hands full against a desperate New York Mets team that struggled miserably last night but scored seven runs on 10 hits in Game 2.

The onus is on the top of the New York order to fire here, and the hosts should be encouraged by Yamamoto’s shaky 4.95 ERA across his last five starts.

The Los Angeles Dodgers may not ask their starter to go more than five innings, but that should be enough time for Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Co. to do some damage — and it would be reasonable to expect some early nerves from the 26-year-old, who’s only got eight postseason innings under his belt.

Yamamoto gave up three runs through six innings of work against the Mets back in April, and I’m wagering on a similar script tonight as New York fights to square the series.

Prop bet #2: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases

+140 bet365

With a .200 average in the 2024 playoffs, Mookie Betts has been somewhat boom or bust. Two of his six hits have been home runs, though he’s been on base in all three games in the NLCS.

I’m banking on getting the best of Betts tonight as the visitors try to take a stranglehold on the series.

He’s seen plenty of Mets starter Jose Quintana over the years, with an 8-for-28 record that includes two doubles and a dinger, and he posted a .308 average against lefties this season.

That experience will be critical for the Dodgers against Quintana, who enters with a 0.61 ERA through his last five starts.

With Betts, this Over only requires one great at-bat. His speed gives him an edge in cashing extra-base hits, and he piled up 11 doubles and three triples on the road this year.

The L.A. offense has already racked up 20 runs in this series, and I like this value for Betts to spark the visitors here.

Prop bet #3: Jose Quintana Over 3.5 strikeouts

-120 BetMGM

The Mets have little margin for error after dropping Game 3, so it’s likely a relief to be able to turn to the veteran Jose Quintana tonight in such a big spot.

Though I have my doubts about Quintana overwhelming this talented Dodgers line-up, I see New York giving him every chance to get through the line-up a couple of times.

Quintana has earned that faith after allowing just three earned runs through his past eight appearances, and his strikeout tallies have been steady over that stretch.

He’s recorded at least four Ks in each of his last seven starts – and six or more punchouts in four of those games. Last time out, he finished with six strikeouts in five innings of work against the Philadelphia Phillies as the Mets wrapped up the NLDS.

This high-scoring L.A. offense is daunting (13 home runs already this postseason, including three at Citi Field last night), but I’m sticking with Quintana’s hot hand and taking the Over on a reasonable 3.5 O/U line.