Despite their massive payroll and juggernaut lineup, the Los Angeles Dodgers are one loss away from being eliminated from the postseason, and the biggest reason why is pitching.
That’s not a problem for the San Diego Padres, however, as Dylan Cease highlights tonight's MLB player props for Game 4 of this National League Division Series.
Make sure to also check out our Dodgers vs. Padres predictions before placing your wagers!
Dodgers vs Padres NLDS Game 4 props
- Cease o4.5 Ks (+100 at bet365)
- Hernandez u0.5 hits (+140 at bet365)
- Tatis Jr. o0.5 RBI (+145 at bet365)
Picks made on 10-9 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Dodgers vs Padres props
Prop bet #1: Dylan Cease Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Dylan Cease had a solid first season for the San Diego Padres, pitching to a 3.32 expected ERA, limiting opponents to a .213 expected batting average, and striking out a big 29.4% of batters faced. Those numbers ranked in the 77th, 85th, and 89th percentiles among MLB pitchers this season.
Although the right-hander lasted just 3 1/3 innings allowing five runs in Game 1, what sticks out to me from that result is Cease managing five Ks while recording just 10 outs.
Current Los Angeles Dodgers batters have a 35% K-rate over 112 career plate appearances vs. Cease, as his strikeout prop is sitting at 4.5 for this pivotal postseason matchup. Cease surpassed that number in 28 of his 33 starts this season, including two of his three matchups against the Dodgers.
Given Cease's current strikeout rate against this lineup, there's clear value in backing the Over tonight.
Prop bet #2: Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 Hits
Teoscar Hernandez has been a great signing for Los Angeles this season, adding more pop and providing some protection for the big boys at the top of the lineup.
He showed that last night, launching a grand slam home run into the seats at Petco Park, keeping his team in the game. That said, he is one of those Dodgers hitters who probably isn’t looking forward to another matchup with Cease.
Hernandez profiles like a standard power hitter with lots of hard swings and high exit velocity, but the cost of that is strikeouts. Hernandez ranked in the bottom 10% of baseball for K-rate this season, and the right-handed slugger has just one single with six strikeouts in 13 career plate appearances against Cease.
Like most power hitters, Hernandez is susceptible to hot and cold streaks, and I'm fading him in Game 4.
Prop bet #3: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBI
The Padres lineup looked complete once Fernando Tatis Jr. returned from an IL stint that cost him all of July and August. The two-time All-Star finished the season strong, hitting .288 with a 1.001 OPS, including seven dingers and 12 RBI over his final 16 games — and he’s carried that momentum over into the postseason.
Tatis has been electric for the Pads through five playoff games, and an incredibly tough out for opponents, hitting .556 with a 1.970 OPS, four home runs, and seven RBI.
It sounds like the Dodgers are starting this bullpen game with Brandon Knack, a right-hander with a .378 expected ERA this season. Los Angeles also likely has just one left-hander available out of the bullpen today, which actually works to Tatis’ advantage given he boasts better splits against righties — sporting a .293 BA and an .881 OPS against RHP.
Tatis has driven in a run in three of his five postseason games and nine of his final 16 regular season games. At +145, there is value in him to drive in another tonight.
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