The Cleveland Guardians boast the American League's best record yet are the road underdog in the MLB odds when they meet the Houston Astros on Tuesday for Game 1 of their three-game series.
Can the Guardians upset the Astros today? Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks and Guardians vs. Astros predictions on Tuesday, April 30.
Guardians vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Guardians moneyline (+126 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s a tale of two offenses trending in the opposite direction when the Cleveland Guardians meet the Houston Astros tonight.
Cleveland boasts the best record and run differential in the AL and is tied with the Yankees for most AL away wins (11). Houston has the second-worst mark in the junior circuit and tied with the Angels for the fewest home wins (four).
Their offenses mainly set these teams apart on the final day of April. Cleveland has scored a minimum of three runs in eight of their last 10, while the Astros can’t seem to get a hit with runners in scoring position.
The Guardians have a good matchup today against righty Hunter Brown, which they can exploit. Brown has served up 19 earned runs across 17 2/3 frames on the bump, mainly because hitters are smashing his favored four-seamer.
Brown is getting whiffs on his fastball (25.3%), but it’s also the pitch that gets hit hardest (54%). The Guardians' offense, particularly Jose Ramirez, eat four-seamers for lunch and could send the righty to the showers early.
Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco has been serviceable for Cleveland, and he might catch a break tonight. The Astros' sexy, All-Star-studded lineup has scored the ninth-fewest runs in the AL with a .679 OPS with runners in scoring position.
Cleveland should score enough to win this game. They’ve plated three or more runs in eight of their last 10 and have an 11-5 away record. Cleveland is 14-1 when taking the lead into the eighth inning and faces an Astros offense that has stranded nearly four runners per game, with a bullpen that has blown six of the eight save opportunities.
Houston has dropped 29 of its past 47 regular-season games at home, which makes this a good spot to back Cleveland.
Guardians vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians moneyline
Carlos Carrasco Under 3.5 strikeouts
Hunter Brown Under 4.5 strikeouts
Houston might not score runs, but they have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Carrasco is a groundball pitcher throwing mostly changeups and has gone Under his strikeout prop in three of his five starts.
Cleveland also boasts a low strikeout and walk rates. Steven Kwan hasn’t struck out once in his last 53 at-bats. Brown has cleared his strikeout prop twice across his five starts, but the Guardians don’t chase pitches, making it hard for Brown to strike out five or more.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Astros odds
Guardians vs Astros live odds
Guardians vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 | Houston -1.5
- Moneyline: Cleveland +126 | Houston -154
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Guardians vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Some money has come in on Cleveland, driving the opening market price from +130 to +126, with odds from as low as +122 to as high as +126.
- The markets reacted quickly to the opening total of 9, driving it to Over 9.5 with odds ranging from +100 to -110 across the U.S. markets. You’ll pay as much as -122 for Under 9.5.
- The Guardians bullpen boasts the second-most holds (23) in baseball.
- The Astros bullpen has surrendered the seventh-most earned runs this season.
Guardians vs Astros trend
The Astros have only hit the moneyline in 20 of their last 53 home games (-33.60 Units / -40% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Astros
Guardians vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSGL, SCHN |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Carlos Carrasco (1-2, 4.63 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Hunter Brown (0-4, 9.68 ERA) |
Guardians vs Astros latest injuries
Guardians vs Astros weather
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