The opening game of this interleague series gets underway on Friday with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Cleveland Guardians at American Family Field. MLB odds have Cleveland as a slight -112 betting favorite, while the total sits at eight.
My Guardians vs. Brewers predictions are anticipating a high-scoring affair, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Guardians vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Cleveland Guardians hand the ball to right-hander Gavin Williams on Friday, and he should be a good fade candidate. Williams is 2-4 through eight starts this season with a messy 4.38 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as the former first-round draft pick ranks in the 39th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, right-hander Aaron Civale takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers.
He’s been even worse than Williams, posting a 3-8 record with a 5.02 ERA and 1.39 WHIP through 23 starts. Civale also enters tonight sitting in the bottom half of the league in xERA, strikeout rate, and barrel rate.
These woes are likely to continue against his former team. Through 21 combined career plate appearances against Civale, this current Cleveland lineup boasts a .316 BA, .421 SLG, and .334 wOBA.
It will also help the Guardians’ cause that they rank in the top half of the league this season in runs scored per game, OPS, and home runs. However, Milwaukee’s lineup is even stronger as it boasts an even higher mark in runs per game and OPS.
Guardians vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Aaron Civale Under 3.5 strikeouts
Steven Kwan 1+ hits
Let's continue to fade Civale in the strikeout department, given that he ranks in the bottom half of the league in chase, whiff, and strikeout rate. Subsequently, the veteran right-hander has recorded three or fewer punchouts in two of his past three starts.
Another correlated outcome of our best bet and simultaneous fade of Civale would be for members of the Guardians to record some hits. That brings us to Steven Kwan, who is 2-for-3 in his career against Civale with a single and a triple.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Brewers odds
Guardians vs Brewers live odds
Guardians vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland -1.5 (+152) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-184)
- Moneyline: Cleveland -112 | Milwaukee -104
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Guardians vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cleveland opened as a -112 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I believe this line will flip over to Milwaukee, given that it outranks Cleveland in runs scored per game, BA, and OPS.
- The Brewers have hit the game total Over in 66 of their last 121 games (+14.00 Units / 11% ROI).
Guardians vs Brewers trend
There have been eight or more total runs scored in 10 of Cleveland’s past 14 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Brewers.
Guardians vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Friday, 8-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSGL, BSWI |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Gavin Williams (2-4, 4.38 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Aaron Civale (3-8, 5.02 ERA) |
Guardians vs Brewers latest injuries
Guardians vs Brewers weather
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