The Cleveland Guardians are in a rut, dropping three of their last four games, including Game 1 of this series with the Miami Marlins.
They’re expected to bounce back on Saturday according to MLB odds, and my Guardians vs. Marlins prediction is also anticipating an offensive outburst from the visitors. Find out why the Over on Cleveland's team total is highlighting my MLB picks for this June 8 tilt.
Guardians vs Marlins prediction
My best bet
Guardians team total Over 4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Miami Marlins are in need of a fifth starter with Sixto Sanchez on the shelf due to a shoulder injury. Enter Roddery Munoz, a 24-year-old who made his first three starts at the MLB level in late April and early May but was blasted back to AAA after allowing six earned runs on seven hits, four walks, and four home runs against the Dodgers.
Naturally, his numbers took a nosedive (5.17 ERA, 7.32 xERA, 7.03 FIP) after that catastrophic performance. His 3.67 xFIP is more encouraging, but there’s an overwhelming amount of evidence he’s not ready for the big leagues.
Munoz was torched for seven runs (six earned) on nine hits across 6 1/3 IP in his last start at AAA to move his ERA to 5.49. If you can’t hack it in the Minors, good luck in The Show.
While the Cleveland Guardians may be on a downswing overall, the lineup has been doing just fine against right-handed pitching. They’ve posted a 121 wRC+ (third) and a .334 wOBA (fifth) across the last 15 days while avoiding strikeouts (17.1% K-rate) and hitting for power (.179 ISO).
Cleveland’s team total sits at 4.5, which is understandable on the surface as the Guardians have scored three or fewer runs in four of their last five games. A closer look reveals they’ve been mashing RHP and face a very hittable one tonight, so I’m bullish on the Over.
Miami’s bullpen has been tremendous lately, throwing 18 scoreless innings in the last three games. That also means they’re overly taxed, however, and starter Ryan Weathers lasted just 2 1/3 IP on Friday before leaving with a finger injury.
Guardians vs Marlins same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians team total Over 4.5
Guardians -1.5
Jose Ramirez to hit a home run
Miami sucks at hitting right-handed pitching, posting a 90 wRC+ and .295 wOBA on the year. Cleveland starter Ben Lively is due for some regression on his 2.84 ERA eventually, but I’ll bet this isn’t the spot where it happens in a favorable matchup for the 32-year-old.
There’s slight plus money being offered on the run line for the team with a +79 run differential playing against one with a -87 run differential.
Jose Ramirez went hitless on Friday, which means he’s likely in line for a quick rebound on Saturday. He hasn’t gone two straight games without a hit since May 11 and May 12. Munoz has allowed six home runs in just 15 2/3 IP in the Big Leagues.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Marlins odds
Guardians vs Marlins live odds
Guardians vs Marlins opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland -1.5 (+100) | Miami +1.5 (-130)
- Moneyline: Cleveland -160 | Miami +135
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Guardians vs Marlins spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cleveland is 5-1 in Lively’s last six starts, whereas Miami is 1-2 in Munoz’s three starts.
- Miami is far from a safe bet at LoanDepot Park, going 12-23 at home. Cleveland, meanwhile, is 19-14 on the road.
- Miami has a 24-11 O/U mark at home this season.
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Guardians vs Marlins trend
The Guardians have hit their team total Over in 36 of their last 62 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Marlins
Guardians vs Marlins game info
| Location: | LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Ben Lively (5-2, 2.84 ERA) |
| Marlins starting pitcher: | Roddery Munoz (1-1, 5.17 ERA) |
Guardians vs Marlins latest injuries
Guardians vs Marlins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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