The Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians in Game 3 of the ALDS at Comerica Park on Wednesday. MLB odds have this game as a pick ‘em, while the total sits at seven.
I’ve compiled my three best MLB player props for Game 3. As always, make sure you keep an eye on the odds and available pricing due to the ever-changing nature of the player prop market.
Here are my free MLB picks in the player prop market for Game 3 between the Tigers and Guardians on Wednesday, October 9.
Guardians vs Tigers ALDS Game 3 props
- Alex Cobb Under 2.5 strikeouts (+126 at FanDuel)
- Riley Greene Over 1.5 total bases (+143 at BetRivers)
- Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 total bases (+148 at BetRivers)
Picks made on 10-8 at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Guardians vs Tigers props
Prop bet #1: Alex Cobb Under 2.5 strikeouts
The Cleveland Guardians hand the ball to right-hander Alex Cobb on Wednesday, and he should serve as a prime regression candidate. In a limited campaign, Cobb posted a 2.76 ERA through three starts.
However, his underlying metrics suggest that steep regression is looming as the right-hander sports a 4.87 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. I want to target this likely regression by fading Cobb in the prop market, considering that he ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates.
While 2.5 is a small number, the 37-year-old will be on a short leash in Game 3 with how little he has thrown this season.
Prop bet #2: Riley Greene Over 1.5 total bases
Another reason why I want to fade Cobb on Wednesday is that I don’t trust his poor power numbers against some of the sluggers in this Detroit Tigers lineup. I will be backing two Detroit hitters in Game 3, starting with Riley Greene.
Greene is perhaps one of the most underrated power hitters in baseball. This season, he ranked in the 83rd percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
As I highlighted in the previous section, Cobb particularly struggles with average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Furthermore, Greene’s numbers improve when facing right-handed pitching as he boasts a .280 BA, .496 SLG, and .873 OPS against that hand.
Prop bet #3: Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 total bases
Sticking with the trend of backing power hitters against Cobb, I also want to target Detroit’s Kerry Carpenter in Game 3.
He just homered in Game 2, and he should be able to find similar success against Cobb on Wednesday. This season, Carpenter collected a dominant .570 xSLG, 17.7% barrel rate and 46.4% hard-hit rate.
Those are some of the best power analytics in baseball, and he only further improves when facing right-handed pitching. Through 264 plate appearances against right-handers this season, Carpenter produced a .305 BA, .631 SLG and .994 OPS.
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