The American League Central should be one of the most exciting divisions in baseball, and today’s matchup between the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins should be a terrific Game 1 of their three-game series.
Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee is the MLB odds underdog when he faces Twins hurler Pablo Lopez to kick off this series.
Can the Guardians pull off the upset? Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks for Guardians vs. Twins on Thursday, April 4.
Guardians vs Twins odds
Guardians vs Twins predictions
Minnesota Twins starter Pablo Lopez couldn’t have asked for a better way to begin the season.
The Twins righty scattered four hits with seven punchouts across seven frames in a solid performance at Kansas City. The veteran righty made it look easy in his season opener, but it won’t be as easy this afternoon.
That’s because the Cleveland Guardians don’t strike out much. Their 18% strikeout rate against righties is one of the best in baseball, and they’ve already plated the sixth-most runs this season against right-handed pitching this season.
Lopez’ history against this collection of Cleveland lumber isn’t that great — he’s punched out eight across 64 at-bats and the Guardians are slashing .375/.412/.516/.927 against the Twins righty.
Cleveland’s low strikeout rate isn’t a fluke. The Guardians led the majors in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in 2023 and have picked up right where they’ve left off. They are patient with the sticks and don’t chase bad pitches, with 47 strikeouts across 251 at-bats this season.
Finally, Lopez is pitching in a home opener, and while he’s coming off a nice outing against the Royals, he’ll be nervous and excited. He’ll meet a red-hot Cleveland offense he’s struggled against and who doesn’t strike out much in general or against Lopez in particular.
The Guardians are a patient offense coming in hot that works counts and swings at good pitches, and has for the past two seasons. While Lopez has cleared 5.5 punchouts in each of his last five starts dating back to last season, he failed to strike out six Cleveland hitters in his three of his four career starts against this offense, and he won’t clear that number this afternoon.
My best bet: Pablo Lopez Under 5.5 strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)
Guardians vs Twins same-game parlay
Pablo Lopez Under 5.5 strikeouts
Andres Gimenez 1+ hit
Steven Kwan 1+ hit
This three-leg same-game parlay ticket isn’t a big banger, but if it hits it, it will boost the bankroll for the weekend.
Several Guardians have solid results against Lopez, but second baseman Andres Gimenez has been hot this season and is 5-for-11 with a couple of extra-base hits against the Twins starter. Cleveland outfielder Steven Kwan is also off to a hot start and boasts five hits across 11 at-bats against Lopez.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Guardians vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Money is coming in on Cleveland. They opened as high as +135 at BetMGM, which was bet down to +125 there. The rest of the U.S. markets have seen little moneyline movement with a best price of +130.
- The total opened at 7.5, and while that number hasn’t changed, the U.S. markets are reporting prices ranging from even money to -105 on the Over. The Under 7.5 markets have vig as low as -115 and as high as -122.
- Minnesota has won six of their last seven home openers.
Trend to know
Pablo Lopez has struck out six or more Guardians hitters just once (2019) across four career starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Twins
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Guardians vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Thursday, April 4, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Pablo Lopez (1-0, 1.29 ERA): Bibee was a rookie sensation until a hip injury derailed an impressive 2023. The Guardians righty allowed three runs on six hits with four punchouts in his last start against the Athletics.
Tanner Bibee (0-0, 6.75 ERA): Lopez opened his season at the Royals with a bang, scattering four hits with seven strikeouts over seven frames. The veteran righty had his best season with Minnesota (11-8, 3.66 ERA) across 194 innings in 2023 with the Twins.
