The Seattle Mariners look to stay hot on the road as they start a three-game set against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Seattle is coming off a weekend sweep of the White Sox to improve to 24-28 on the road, and my Mariners vs. Red Sox predictions like Logan Gilbert to do his part at bettering that away record tonight.
Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, July 29.
Mariners vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 strikeouts (-135 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Seattle Mariners have one of the best starting rotations in baseball, which includes tonight's starter Logan Gilbert. The 27-year-old right-hander is 6-6 with a 2.72 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 139 innings this season.
Gilbert excels at striking batters out with the 20th-best K% in the league at 25%. His line is set at a lower 5.5 tonight, a mark he’s hit in 15 of 21 starts this season. Mind you, four of those misses came in May.
Since June 10th, Gilbert has racked up 56 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings with at least six strikeouts in seven of eight starts. The lone outlier was a three-strikeout performance against the Twins, who are one of the better teams at putting the bat on the ball.
The same can’t be said about the Boston Red Sox.
Boston is striking out 9.67 times per game — the third most in the league — and New York Yankees pitchers combined for 11 punchouts in Sunday night’s contest.
Gilbert is rolling and has already seen the Sox once this season, striking out eight across seven innings of one-run ball back in March. That's another feather in his cap: durability. He's completed six or more innings in 18 of his 21 starts and in 12 of 13. This long leash allows him a better shot at consistently cashing the Over, as does the fact that he doesn't often issue a ton of free passes, walking more than one batter just once in his last 12 outings.
Take Gilbert to go Over 5.5 strikeouts and consider a ladder up to 8+ Ks as he’s hit that mark in seven games this season, including in each of his last two outings.
Mariners vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Logan Gilbert 8+ strikeouts
Nick Pivetta 8+ strikeouts
Jarren Duran 1+ hits
I’m going up that ladder for our same-game parlay with both Gilbert and Nick Pivetta to record at least eight strikeouts. The Mariners strike out a league-worst 10.21 times per game and we’ve already gone over Boston’s numbers.
Jarren Duran is enjoying a nice breakout season for the Sox with a .289 average and .853 OPS. Sunday night broke a 10-game hitting streak for Duran, which I expect him to pick right back up on tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Red Sox odds
Mariners vs Red Sox live odds
Mariners vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+150) | Boston +1.5 (-180)
- Moneyline: Seattle -110 | Boston -110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Mariners vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Red Sox opened as -120 favorites and haven’t moved too much as of Monday morning.
- The Mariners' odds are as high as +115 (Caesars) after opening around even money.
- The total is set at 8.5 with both the Over and Under at -105 at different books.
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Mariners vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+8.35 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Red Sox
Mariners vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Monday, 7-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ROOT Sports Northwest, NESN |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (6-6, 2.72 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (4-7, 4.50 ERA) |
Mariners vs Red Sox latest injuries
Mariners vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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