The Miami Marlins head to Truist Park to start a four-game set with the Atlanta Braves on Thursday night, and promising young righty Max Meyer will toe the rubber for the Fish.
Atlanta wasn’t much of a force at the dish in July, and Miami made seven deals ahead of the deadline to put the focus fully on the future. My Marlins vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks call for Meyer to pitch deep into tonight’s series opener against Atlanta.
Marlins vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Max Meyer Over 15.5 outs recorded (+136 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Miami Marlins rookie Max Meyer was a touch unlucky in his last start against the Brewers, allowing three runs on four hits and two walks across just four innings. The Brew Crew fouled off 27 of his 85 offers and his pitch count climbed quickly to contribute to his early exit.
I’m anticipating him pitching deeper into Thursday’s game because the Atlanta Braves have been a mediocre offensive team against right-handed pitchers with an 18th-ranked .304 wOBA and a 22nd-ranked wRC+ while striking out the fifth most this season (24.5% strikeout rate). Atlanta also paced the Big Leagues with a 27.1 K% while ranking 24th in wOBA (.306) and 25th in wRC+ (95) in July.
Meyer’s surface and underlying metrics in the majors have been solid across four starts this season, and most importantly, there are no limitations to his workload moving forward. He brings a 3.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 3.83 xFIP into Thursday’s game at Truist Park.
So, while the 25-year-old righty isn’t going to continue limiting opposing hitters to a .218 BABIP and strand runners with an 83.3% LOB%, there’s a lot to be encouraged about with his fastball and slider both grading as plus-pitches.
Still, the most important part of this nod is the fact Miami isn't contending; Meyer putting in the work to develop is priority No. 1 for him and the organization. He’s not on an innings cap and I’m expecting him to have a long leash to work his way out of trouble and approach triple-digit pitches.
Marlins vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves moneyline
Max Meyer Over 15.5 outs recorded
Charlie Morton Over 5.5 strikeouts
The Braves are a sizable home favorite in this matchup with the Marlins unloading multiple key players ahead of the deadline, and I also expect Atlanta starter Charlie Morton to have a solid night on the bump against Miami’s new-look lineup.
Morton has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in all four of his July starts for an uncharacteristically low 7.08 K/9 and 18..2 K%. Considering the veteran posted respective 9.14 and 24.4% marks through his first 15 starts of the season, I’m expecting a splash of statistical correction from Morton on Thursday.
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Marlins vs Braves odds
Marlins vs Braves live odds
Marlins vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Miami +1.5 (-130) | Atlanta -1.5 (+110)
- Moneyline: Miami +165 | Atlanta -200
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Marlins vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- There have only been minor adjustments to this moneyline at both Pinnacle and bet365, with neither shop moving far off the opening numbers.
- As noted, the Braves are a sizable home favorite, and I don’t expect a lot of action coming in on the Marlins given the mass exodus of talent ahead of the trade deadline.
- The total has also seen minor movement, with both Pinnacle and bet365 briefly hanging an 8.5 number.
- Both shops have the total at 9, with the Under carrying the higher vig as of Thursday morning.
Marlins vs Braves trend
Max Meyer has gone Over 15.5 outs in two of his past three starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Braves
Marlins vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Southeast |
| Marlins starting pitcher: | Max Meyer (2-0, 3.00 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (5-6, 4.16 ERA) |
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