The San Francisco Giants go for the sweep as they host the New York Mets for Game 3 at Oracle Park on Wednesday afternoon. The MLB odds have the Giants as -130 favorites in this series finale.
I’m taking a closer look at one of the starting pitchers for my best bet in this matchup. Read on for my free MLB picks and Mets vs. Giants predictions below.
Mets vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Sean Manaea Over 15.5 outs recorded (-103 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Wednesday afternoon’s Game 3 offers a pitching matchup between two southpaws.
The New York Mets send Sean Manaea (4.12 ERA, 5.71 xERA, 3.51 FIP) to the bump while the San Francisco Giants counter with their big offseason acquisition who has struggled mightily — Blake Snell (11.57 ERA, 4.07 xERA, 4.62 FIP).
It’s Manaea I’m interested in for Wednesday as I’m a fan of his game overall and think he could be a tad undervalued after his former squad — the Giants — moved him primarily to the bullpen last season in an odd move decision considering the veteran starter has usually been effective throughout his career.
His inflated xERA and 11.6% walk rate may look like causes for concern this season, but neither figure has been an issue for him in the past and therefore could be a result of a small sample size. Across the last five seasons, his xERA has averaged out at 3.95 and his career walk rate is just 6.6%.
San Francisco has been middle-of-the-road against lefties this year, ranking 15th in wRC+ and 16th in wOBA. The Giants haven’t drawn many walks against southpaws, ranking 22nd in walk rate (7.2%), but they also haven’t struck out much (22nd in K-rate at 20.1%).
Manaea should have every opportunity to find the strike zone in this matchup and get back on track after issuing six walks across his last two starts. He’s been effective on the road thus far by allowing three earned runs across 10 innings while notching more strikeouts (nine) than hits allowed (seven).
The 32-year-old hurler’s outs recorded prop is set at 15.5. He’s gone Under that number in three straight starts, but I’m in no hurry to overreact.
Prior history indicates that his walk rate should stabilize and allow him to pitch deeper into games, and you don’t have to go too far back to find proof — he recorded more than 15.5 outs in each of his five starts before this recent stretch.
Mets vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Sean Manaea Over 15.5 outs recorded
Sean Manaea Over 4.5 strikeouts
Mets moneyline
Manaea generates a fair amount of strikeouts as his K-rate has been above 23% in each of the last three seasons and is at 24.4% so far this year. I’ll back him to exceed his strikeout prop as that correlates well with my best bet — the deeper he pitches into the game, the more opportunities he’ll get.
The Mets face a struggling Snell who has surrendered 15 earned runs in just 11 2/3 innings, so I’m happy to make him prove me wrong before believing he’s fully ramped up and ready to be effective.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Giants odds
Mets vs Giants live odds
Mets vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-200) | San Francisco -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: New York +110 | San Francisco -130
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Mets vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets are hot and cold. After a six-game winning streak, they’ve now lost three straight by a combined score of 20-3.
- The Giants are 3-1 in their last four games and 5-2 in their last seven.
- The Giants are 3-0 to the Over in games Snell has started.
Mets vs Giants trend
San Francisco has stayed Under its first-five team total in 56 of its last 85 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Giants
Mets vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WPIX, NBC Sports Bay Area |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Sean Manaea (1-1, 4.30 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Blake Snell (0-2, 12.86 ERA) |
Mets vs Giants latest injuries
Mets vs Giants weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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