We wrap up our weekend with another edition of Sunday Night Baseball when the Seattle Mariners host the New York Mets.
The Mariners will be eying the sweep after a 4-0 win last night while the Mets will be looking to score a run this series after back-to-back shutouts. Both of these teams remain in the playoff picture, and our Mets vs. Mariners predictions expect a tight showing.
Read on for my free MLB picks for Sunday, August 11th. Additionally, if prop bets are your thing, Ed Scimia's got you covered with his favorite Mets vs. Mariners player props for Sunday Night Baseball.
Mets vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
First five innings Under 4.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Given the trends we've seen in this series and overall for the New York Mets, it's easy to like the Under. New York hasn't scored a run in two straight games, has had nine of its last ten games go under, and has had six straight overall.
I have a projected total of 7.1, which gives me a small edge. However, I'm seeing a bit more value in backing the starting pitching to be strong and taking the bullpens out of this equation. That's where we're headed with my best bet of the first five innings Under 4.5.
Luis Severino has been an extremely reliable option for the Mets this season. You'd like more swing-and-miss from him, but he's rarely been blown up. In addition, he's done an excellent job of inducing soft contact with any metric regarding hard-hit balls ranking in the Top 20% of the league.
The Seattle Mariners have been reliant on the occasional power stroke rather than piecing multiple ones together. Severino can nullify that, which will lessen Seattle's run threat.
On the other hand, Luis Castillo has posted yet another solid season in the majors and is facing a Mets offense that has been lifeless lately, too.
He's also a chase-reliant pitcher who should be able to get a good amount today. On the season, New York has a chase rate that ranks ninth overall in baseball. However, that rate has gone up to the fifth highest in the sport over the last month. That should be music to Castillo's ears. He'll enter this evening with a chase rate in the Top 20% of baseball plus strong strikeout and whiff rates.
I expect Castillo to seize on those issues and silence the Mets. New York has shown very little over the last few weeks to believe that its bats will be able to get to an elite pitcher. The Mets will be eager to avoid being swept, which may lead to chasing more pitches than the patience they need. This game will also represent the end of a lengthy road trip with no rest.
All of these elements point to a quiet start. Back that here.
Mets vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
F5 Under 4.5
Luis Castillo Over 6.5 strikeouts
These are highly correlated but still hold some excellent value. We're pairing our best bet with Castillo to go Over 6.5 strikeouts. It's a slight edge, but we projected 7.1 strikeouts today.
It's a pretty straightforward handicap, too. The Mets have had issues chasing pitches lately and throughout this season. Castillo has excelled in that area this season and throughout his career.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Mariners odds
Mets vs Mariners live odds
Mets vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-185) | Seattle -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: New York +110 | Seattle -130
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)
Mets vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mariners have had a commanding hold of this head-to-head matchup over the past 10 meetings, going 7-3 with three straight victories entering tonight.
- Nine of the Mets' last 10 games have gone Under the total.
- The Mariners have been profitable for the bettors over their last 10 games, with a 6-4 record.
- The Mariners have taken some money since opening up as a slight favorite, moving roughly 20 cents at the time of writing.
Mets vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.00 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Mariners.
Mets vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (7-5, 4.06 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Luis Castillo (9-11, 3.48 ERA) |
Mets vs Mariners latest injuries
Mets vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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