It's the final game of the Subway Series when the New York Yankees host the New York Mets tonight.
Yet again, the Yankees' offense will be trying to rebound after looking lifeless in the first game of this series last night. A 3-2 loss left me feeling like this Yankees season is approaching a crossroads.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free Mets vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 24.
Mets vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Sean Manaea Over 2.5 walks allowed (-120 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
At this point, with all of their struggles, there's no real argument against blindly fading the New York Yankees until they turn it around. The team has numerous issues, particularly the current offensive holes in the lineup. With that said, I can't quite get there with this number, as my projections see no edge. However, we are focusing on the other part regarding the offensive holes in our handicap.
My best bet is Sean Manaea Over 2.5 walks issued as he'll grab the mound for the New York Mets this evening.
Most teams' approach is to let anyone but Aaron Judge or Juan Soto beat them. Given the alternatives around them, and it's a sound strategy. There are few runs to be found after Judge in the lineup with Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, and even Jose Trevino all hurt. We saw the Mets employ the "anyone but Judge" strategy last night when he was walked four times, two intentional and the rest featuring some non-competitive pitches. Why would that change tonight?
If that's the case, you're looking at Manaea having two walks before he steps onto the field. He's made it to the second time against a team's starting lineup in eight straight starts, including the last time he faced this Yankees team. He walked five Yankees in that outing, which makes this line all the more perplexing. That lineup was more threatening, sure, but he was also forced to pitch to Judge in those situations and will be far less willing to do it today.
There's a lot to like here. I projected nearly four walks for Manaea if he makes it five or more innings. The Judge factor weighs heavily here, most certainly, but in addition to that, Sean Manaea has had trouble with walks all season. He'll enter today with a walk rate in the highest 20% of baseball.
Mets vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Sean Manaea Over 2.5 walks allowed
Aaron Judge Under 0.5 hits
You can guess where I'm going here. Since Judge is such a significant factor in this best bet, I'm pairing it with Judge not to get a hit.
Judge hasn't had back-to-back games without a hit since the series against the Tampa Bay Rays a month ago. However, he has yet to be approached like this. Judge isn't getting chances to get hits because he's not getting competitive pitches. With that in mind, we're getting a price on something that doesn't factor in much correlation when there's quite a strong one. I'm inclined to take a stab at such an attractive number here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Yankees odds
Mets vs Yankees live odds
Mets vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: NYM +1.5 (-148) | NYY -1.5 (+124)
- Moneyline: NYM +140 | NYY -166
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Mets vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets have had a good run in these head-to-head meetings recently. They'll come into tonight with three straight wins over the Bronx Bombers.
- The Yankees' rough run continues. They're 4-6 in their last 10 games and have entered the conversation of missing the postseason.
- The Mets made a push right before the All-Star break and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games, making bettors nearly two units.
- There have been some disagreements amongst books on this line movement. At FanDuel, bettors have grabbed the Mets and played them down to +135. At bet365, the Mets have moved to +150.
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Mets vs Yankees trend
The Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 57 of their last 91 games (+16.85 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees
Mets vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Sean Manaea (6-4, 3.73 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Gerrit Cole (3-1, 4.60 ERA) |
Mets vs Yankees latest injuries
Mets vs Yankees weather
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