The Cleveland Guardians will look to win a sixth straight game as they host the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field tonight.
The Guardians (67-42) have won the first two games of this series, but are underdogs in the MLB odds tonight against the Orioles (65-46).
Two pitchers who are new to their teams — a rookie and a trade acquisition — will face off tonight, and my Orioles vs. Guardians predictions break down what that means for bettors in my free MLB picks for Saturday, August 3.
Orioles vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Baltimore Orioles may not have made any huge moves at the trade deadline, but they did fortify their starting rotation with the addition of veteran starter Zach Eflin. The 30-year-old righty is 6-7 with a 4.11 ERA and picked up a win in his first appearance for Baltimore on Monday.
That wasn’t the most impressive outing ever, however. Eflin allowed three runs on 10 hits over six innings of work, though he didn’t allow a single walk — something that has been his strength in recent years, as he is averaging just one base on balls per nine innings on the season. It remains to be seen if Eflin can improve his numbers down the stretch for Baltimore, as he has thrown to a 4.71 ERA while allowing a .753 OPS during July.
But there are far more question marks on the Cleveland Guardians' side tonight. The home team is giving the ball to 24-year-old rookie southpaw Joey Cantillo, who made the first start of his major league career last Sunday against the Phillies. The Hawaiian prospect didn’t produce any magic in that appearance, lasting just 3 1/3 innings while giving up three runs on four hits, including two homers.
Cantillo has spent seven seasons in the minors and was largely dominant at lower levels. However, in 28 appearances at the Triple-A level, he posted a 4.21 ERA over 124 innings of work. While his 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings were impressive, they were tempered somewhat by a concerning 5.4 walks per nine, leading him to post a 1.508 WHIP in the level that’s closest to the majors in overall competition.
Can Cantillo figure it out at the MLB level? It’s certainly possible, but the Orioles are not the team he wants to face right now. Baltimore is averaging 5.05 runs per game on the year, and despite having a lot of lefty bats in the lineup, the Orioles barely have any platoon splits, hitting four points higher and putting up a .767 OPS against southpaws.
Cleveland is no slouch offensively either, averaging 4.67 runs per game. I’m expecting plenty of runs tonight, just as we’ve seen in the first two games of this series.
Orioles vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Orioles moneyline
Ryan Mountcastle 2+ total bases
The Over is my clear play for tonight’s game, but I have a couple of other picks that are perfect for rounding out our same-game parlay.
That starts with taking the Orioles to win outright. Yes, Cleveland has been on a run lately, but this pitching matchup should favor a Baltimore team that can slug it out with the best lineups in the majors.
On that note, let’s take Ryan Mountcastle to pick up at least two total bases tonight. Mountcastle has hit that mark in six of his last eight matchups and should have a good opportunity to get off the mark quickly against Cantillo.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Guardians odds
Orioles vs Guardians live odds
Orioles vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+120) | Cleveland +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -130 | Cleveland +110
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Orioles vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cleveland has won about 20 units for bettors on the moneyline this year, while Baltimore is up 2.75 units on the season.
- The Guardians have won five straight games and are 4-1 against the Orioles in 2024.
- The Over is 62-40 when the Orioles play this season, and has gone an even 52-52 in Guardians games on the year.
- Baltimore is averaging a total of 9.35 runs per game, while Cleveland is playing to a clip of 8.50.
Orioles vs Guardians trend
The Over is 11-1 in Baltimore’s last 12 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Guardians.
Orioles vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (6-7, 4.11 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Joey Cantillo (0-0, 8.10 ERA) |
Orioles vs Guardians latest injuries
Orioles vs Guardians weather
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