Orioles vs Guardians Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

A pair of division leaders are set to begin a four-game series at Progressive Field tonight as the Cleveland Guardians host the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore comes into the series having won four of its last five games while averaging nearly 8.0 runs per game over that span, led by Ryan Mountcastle who’s picked up eight RBI across those contests.

My Orioles vs. Guardians predictions think he'll stay hot tonight. Find out why in my MLB picks below.

Orioles vs Guardians prediction

My best bet
Ryan Mountcastle Over 0.5 RBI (+165 at DraftKings)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
The Baltimore Orioles made easy work of the Blue Jays during their four-game set earlier this week, earning three wins while outscoring their AL East rivals 31-19 in the series. Ryan Mountcastle's four RBI were a big part of that and I’ll look for him to keep swinging a hot bat against the Cleveland Guardians in tonight’s opener.

After a slow start to July where he drove in just three runs through his first 14 games, Mountcastle has come alive at the plate in the past week with a team-leading 11 RBI in seven games. His 11 RBI lead all players in the majors since July 25 — one more than Yankees slugger Aaron Judge.

While the Orioles first baseman has a better batting average against lefties (.306) compared to righties (.260) this year, he's driven in 44 of his 54 runs vs. right-handed pitchers and will have a chance to add to that total tonight as Ben Lively takes the mound for Cleveland.

Lively is in the midst of his best season in the majors, sporting a 3.44 ERA through 18 starts, but saw his play drop off last month. The right-hander posted a 4.50 ERA in July — his worst month of the season — and an even higher FIP of 5.13.

With Mountcastle accounting for more than 20% of his club’s runs over the past week, I expect him to keep that trend going by picking up another RBI tonight.

Orioles vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)

Ryan Mountcastle Over 0.5 RBI

Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 home runs

Orioles team total Over 3.5

+950 at DraftKings

I’ve talked about Mountcastle’s performance at the plate but I'd be remiss not to give Guardians slugger Jose Ramirez some love as well. The third baseman is fresh off a huge series against the Tigers where he smashed three home runs in two games and I’ll look for him to go yard again tonight.

I’ll round out tonight’s SGP by taking the Orioles to score Over 3.5 runs — a mark they’ve hit in eight straight outings.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Orioles vs Guardians odds

Orioles vs Guardians live odds

Orioles vs Guardians opening odds

• Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+145) | Cleveland +1.5 (-170)
• Moneyline: Baltimore -110 | Cleveland -110
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5

Orioles vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis

• Tonight’s series opener is a pick‘em with most books having both the Orioles and Guardians in the -110 to -115 range. As of Friday morning, Baltimore had not officially announced a starter so those numbers could change drastically once we know who’s taking the mound.
  
  
• The total opened at 9.5 runs, with both clubs trending in opposite directions. Cleveland has cashed the Under in seven of its last 10 games while the Over is 9-1 in Baltimore’s last 10 outings.
  
  
• The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the clubs, though 62% of bettors had their money on the Over at the time of writing.

Orioles vs Guardians trend

The Guardians are 13-7 in the last 20 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Guardians.

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