The New York Mets will look to pick up some key wins to get back into the Wild Card race as they host the Baltimore Orioles in the first of a three-game series on Monday night.
The Mets are two games back of a playoff spot but could get a boost tonight as they're favored over the Orioles in the MLB odds. Read our Orioles vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks below to find out why you should back them tonight.
Orioles vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Mets moneyline (-134 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Baltimore Orioles picked up starter Trevor Rogers from the Marlins at the trade deadline in hopes of picking up some depth for their rotation. They might have also been optimistic that they could help him regain the form he showed back in 2021 when he posted a 2.64 ERA in 133 innings of work.
However, Rogers hasn’t pitched anywhere near that level in the last three seasons, and Baltimore hasn’t seen anything promising out of him since he joined the team. In his first three starts, he's gone 0-2 with a 7.53 ERA in just 14 1/3 innings.
He's never had great control — he’s allowing four walks per nine innings overall this season — but he’s also getting hit regularly by batters, which has led him to put up an awful 1.884 WHIP so far in Baltimore.
The lefty gets another tough assignment tonight, going up against a New York Mets team that's been especially dangerous against southpaws this year. New York has put up a .260 average and .772 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2024, well above their numbers against righties.
This has been one of the more explosive offenses in the league in general, averaging 4.78 runs per game, and they seem to be coming out of a recent slump, as they’ve put up an average of 5.33 runs over their last six outings.
The Mets will also get a boost tonight from having David Peterson on the mound. Like Rogers, Peterson is a pitcher who had shown signs of promise but had never put together sustained success.
Unlike the Orioles starter, Peterson seems to have figured things out this year. After starting the year with a dominant minor league performance, the Mets brought him up in late May, and the 28-year-old has gone 7-1 with a 3.04 ERA at the Big League level this season.
The Mets have a big edge on the mound tonight and their offense looks primed to take advantage of Rogers, who's inspired very little confidence during his time in Baltimore.
Orioles vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets moneyline
Over 8.5
David Peterson 4+ strikeouts
I like the Mets to win behind Peterson tonight, and that will be the focal point of my SGP as well. Along with taking New York on the moneyline, I’ll add Peterson to strike out at least four batters. Peterson has hit that total in seven consecutive starts, making it a safer add to the SGP.
I’m also taking the Over 8.5. Both teams are more than capable of putting up runs in bunches and Rogers has been struggling to put together strong starts this year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Mets odds
Orioles vs Mets live odds
Orioles vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-190) | New York -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Baltimore +110 | New York -130
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Orioles vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles have won about three units on the moneyline this year, while the Mets are down a little over one unit for backers.
- Baltimore has gone 1-2 in Trevor Rogers’ first three starts with the team. New York is 10-3 in David Peterson’s starts this season.
- The Over has gone 69-47 in Orioles games this season and also has the 63-57 edge when the Mets play this year.
- The Orioles are playing to an average total of 9.36 runs, with the Mets playing to a nearly identical average total of 9.33 runs.
Orioles vs Mets trend
The Mets are 10-2 in David Peterson’s last 12 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Mets.
Orioles vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date: | Monday, 8-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, SportsNet New York |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Trevor Rogers (2-11, 4.89 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | David Peterson (7-1, 3.04 ERA) |
Orioles vs Mets latest injuries
Orioles vs Mets weather
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