The New York Mets will look to carry momentum over from last night’s walk-off win as they host the Baltimore Orioles for the second game of their series at Citi Field on Tuesday night.
The MLB odds are once again making the Mets home favorites against Baltimore, but my Orioles vs. Mets predictions are targeting the total. Find out why in my MLB picks below.
Orioles vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
These teams played a tight game to start their series on Monday, with Francisco Alvarez coming through with a game-winning homer in the bottom of the ninth to send New York home as 4-3 winners. That victory was due in large part to starting pitcher David Peterson’s ability to keep the Baltimore lineup largely in check for seven innings, something not many starters have been able to do this season.
Repeating that feat is going to be a challenge for the New York Mets tonight. Jose Quintana is taking the ball for New York tonight and he’s struggled to keep opposing lineups in check. Most concerningly of all, Quintana has been struggling against lineups that don’t have nearly the firepower of the Baltimore Orioles.
Over his last three starts, Quintana has gone 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA, with the Mets losing all three games. Those starts came against the Angels, Mariners, and Athletics, all of whom rank 25th or worse in scoring this season. Oakland is the only one of those three teams averaging even 4.00 runs per game.
Baltimore is on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Orioles are averaging 5.02 runs per game, the third-best mark in the majors. The Orioles are even more deadly against left-handed pitching, hitting to a .772 OPS against southpaws.
The Mets should be able to do some damage again tonight as well. While New York’s lineup has cooled a bit in August, it's still managed to produce an average of 5.14 runs per game over its last seven outings, and the team still ranks among the Top 10 offenses in the majors for the entire season.
Tonight, the Mets will face off against Baltimore’s Dean Kremer. The 28-year-old is muddling through another mediocre season, with his 4.48 ERA possibly masking even worse peripherals. Kremer is giving up 1.5 homers per nine innings and has seen his walk numbers rise precipitously this year. That has added up to a 4.79 FIP, which suggests he’s not due for a rebound anytime soon.
Both teams have an opportunity to score some runs tonight, with the overall offensive environment better than in Monday’s game. Yet the total is slightly lower than last night’s game at most books; I’m not buying it.
Orioles vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Orioles moneyline
Ryan Mountcastle to record a hit
I love the Over tonight and I think the Orioles will be doing most of the work for us. That’s why I’m also adding Baltimore to win outright to my SGP. This feels like something of a tossup, but I see the Orioles as a slight favorite even though they’re available as an even-money underdog at many books.
To go along with that pick, I’m also taking Ryan Mountcastle to pick up at least one hit tonight. Mountcastle has hit safely in 10 of his last 14 games and has a good matchup tonight with Quintana on the mound.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Mets odds
Orioles vs Mets live odds
Orioles vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-190) | New York -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Baltimore +100 | New York -120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Orioles vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles and Mets are both treading water on the moneyline this year, with Baltimore up a little under two units and New York nearly dead even for the season.
- The Mets have gone 12-12 this year when Jose Quintana takes the mound, while the Orioles are 7-10 in Dean Kremer’s starts.
- Baltimore is playing to an average total of 9.34 runs, with New York averaging a nearly identical total of 9.31 runs per game.
- The Over is 69-48 in Orioles games this season and also has a 63-58 advantage when the Mets play.
Orioles vs Mets trend
The Over is 5-2 in Dean Kremer’s last seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Mets.
Orioles vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, SportsNet New York |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Dean Kremer (5-9, 4.48 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (6-8, 4.26 ERA) |
Orioles vs Mets latest injuries
Orioles vs Mets weather
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