The Baltimore Orioles hit the road for the first game of a four-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field, and I’ve got free Orioles vs. Rays predictions for this contest.
The MLB odds are split on this AL East showdown with both teams sitting -110 by the moneyline, despite the Orioles being several games up on the Rays in the division.
My MLB picks believe Gunnar Henderson will be the Baltimore bat that shines brightest on Friday, June 7.
Orioles vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The last time the Baltimore Orioles made the postseason in two straight years, Cal Ripken Jr. was still on the team. It’s been a long two-plus decades for the Orioles, but once again they have a star shortstop capable of taking them to the promised land.
Gunnar Henderson doesn’t just look poised to make his first All-Star appearance this season, but he’s also in the thick of the AL MVP odds thanks to his stellar play. The 22-year-old has built on last season’s Rookie of the Year campaign and has quickly become one of the best young players in baseball.
That’s got to have Tampa Bay Rays starter Aaron Civale quivering, especially with the way the righty has been taken to task this season. After a solid start to the year, he’s been beaten up pretty badly in seven straight starts.
Civale heads into this matchup against Baltimore with a 5.37 ERA and a 1.339 WHIP, having given up 65 hits and 11 home runs across 62 innings pitched. He’s allowed at least five hits in eight of his last nine starts and has allowed a home run in 10 of 12 starts.
Asking him to get it together against Henderson is borderline unfair, as he hasn’t even made it six innings since April 16. Civale’s biggest strength is his pitch diversity with four that he uses over 15% of the time, but that shouldn’t slow Henderson.
Against Civale’s most frequent pitch — a cutter he uses 31.1% of the time — Henderson has found success with a .533 SLG. His next-most used pitch is a sinker at 19.6% of the time, and while Henderson is batting just .256 against them, he’s put up 11 extra-base hits vs. fastballs this season.
Where Henderson can really kill Civale is off his breaking balls. Civale has two in the arsenal with a curveball (17.5%) and sweeper (16.3%), and Henderson is mashing them both. He has a .500 average and 1.250 SLG against curves and a .353 average and 1.118 SLG against sweepers this season.
Of his 32 extra-base hits this season, 14 have come against breaking balls.
Orioles vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 total bases
Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 hits
Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 hits
Having two of the best young players at their position in Henderson and Adley Rutschman certainly makes Baltimore a challenging matchup for any pitcher. But Civale will have it tougher than most with Rutschman batting better than .290 against four of his Top 5 pitches. It doesn’t hurt that he’s recorded a hit in 10 straight games.
Given the success Henderson and Rutschman are set up to have, Tampa will need Isaac Paredes to be at his best. He leads the Rays in hits (64) and total bases (107) and is hitting .300 or better against three of Cole Irvin’s Top 4 pitches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Rays odds
Orioles vs Rays live odds
Orioles vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 | Tampa Bay +1.5
- Moneyline: Baltimore -118 | Tampa Bay +104
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Orioles vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles opened between a -118 and -123 moneyline favorite at most books, but both Baltimore and Tampa Bay are near -110 as of Friday morning.
- The Rays sit just fourth in the AL East this season at 31-31 but have won three straight games, while the Orioles are second in the division at 39-22.
- The Over/Under opened at 7.5 and remains there at most books with a few offering the Under at plus-money.
- Baltimore is the best Over team in the majors this season at 32-23-6 and Tampa isn’t far behind at 32-29-1.
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Orioles vs Rays trend
The Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.75 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Rays
Orioles vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 6-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN2, Bally Sports Sun |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cole Irvin (5-2, 2.84 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Aaron Civale (2-4, 5.37 ERA) |
Orioles vs Rays latest injuries
Orioles vs Rays weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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