The final series of the regular season between the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox kicks off tonight.
Boston is a slight favorite, and our Orioles vs. Red Sox predictions agree with that lean as starter Brayan Bello has the advantage over Cade Povich.
Our MLB picks dive deeper into the pitching matchup below.
Orioles vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Red Sox moneyline (-116 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Baltimore Orioles are coming off a disappointing series with the Rays, losing two of three, including a 2-0 shutout Sunday. They’ve dropped a half-game back of the Yankees in the AL East but still sit comfortably atop the Wild Card standings.
Baltimore’s offense — which ranks Top 4 in runs scored in baseball — has dried up of late, with four runs in the last four games, and that output will likely need to be upped to support rookie starter Cade Povich.
The lefty is coming off the best start of his career, pitching a season-best 7 1/3 innings of scoreless, five-hit ball, striking out 10 in a 9-0 rout of the White Sox. It’s an outlier start for Povich, who was lit up in three August starts, surrendering 24 hits in 14 2/3 innings, to go along with 12 earned runs. Plus, it was against the White Sox.
One of those poor starts was a 5-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox, where he gave up six hits and two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings.
The Red Sox are likely on their last stand, as they came off a five-game losing skid by taking two of three from the White Sox.
With 19 games left, Boston is four back of the Twins for the third and final wild card, with two other teams it still needs to leapfrog in the Tigers and Mariners.
Offense has been an issue for the Red Sox, too, averaging three runs per game over the last six, putting them Bottom 6 in the rankings.
They will lean on righty Brayan Bello, coming off a shelling last start against the Mets, chased after five innings, giving up seven hits and four earned runs in a 4-1 loss.
But he’s been great against Baltimore in three starts this season, going 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA. Bello has allowed a total of five runs over 16 1/3 innings while holding the O’s to a .180 average — by far the best ERA against the five teams he’s thrown at least 10 innings against.
The Orioles have won seven of the 10 head-to-head meetings this year, but Boston has taken two of the last three. For our betting purposes, we’ll roll with Bello, who needs to set the tone in a crucial set for Boston to even come close to sniffing the postseason.
Orioles vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox moneyline
Cedric Mullins 2+ total bases
Cade Povich Under 5.5 strikeouts
Cedric Mullins was one of two Orioles to have success last game, going 2-for-4 against the Rays on Sunday. That gives him hits in eight of his last nine games, and at least two total bases in four of those contests.
He is hitting a crisp .444 in nine at-bats against Bello in his career and is hitting .259 at home this season with 25 extra-base hits. I like his chances of picking up a couple more bases tonight.
This is going to be Povich’s biggest start of his young career, and the books have set his strikeout line at a very normal 5.5 Ks. It’s a number he topped in his lone outing against Boston this year.
But in 12 starts this season, Povich has only cleared this figure four times, including the last game against Chicago. He’s yet to post back-to-back games of at least six strikeouts.
Otherwise, the most strikeouts he’s tallied after a six-K game is three.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Red Sox odds
Orioles vs Red Sox live odds
Orioles vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore +100 | Boston -120
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-190) | Boston -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Orioles vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Boston has been a moneyline favorite just once this year vs Baltimore.
- The two teams have gone Under the total in three of the last four meetings.
- The Orioles have gone Over the total in four of their last six.
Orioles vs Red Sox trend
All 10 matchups between the Orioles and Red Sox this season have been decided by two or more runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Red Sox.
Orioles vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Monday, 9-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, NESN |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cade Povich (2-7, 5.76 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (12-7, 4.75 ERA) |
Orioles vs Red Sox latest injuries
Orioles vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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