The San Diego Padres look to stay hot when they face the Los Angeles Dodgers after picking up a 4-2 victory over them on Tuesday.
It’s expected to be a pitcher’s duel, with Dylan Cease and Jack Flaherty toeing the rubber, and my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions explain why you need to bet the Under.
Read on for my MLB picks for September 25.
Padres vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Dylan Cease is having a great first year with the San Diego Padres, sporting a 3.42 ERA, 3.27 xERA, and 3.09 FIP across 184 1/3 IP. There isn’t much reason to expect him to slow down now as he ranks in the 85th percentile in xBA (.212), the 91st percentile in whiff rate (32%), and the 90th percentile in K rate (29.8%).
He’s issued a Cease and Desist order to opposing batters and has a lethal arsenal to enforce that regulation. The 28-year-old is tied for the lead in Stuff+ (122) among qualified starters, and his slider has been among the deadliest pitches in the sport — holding hitters to a .157 BA and .196 wOBA.
His pitching counterpart hasn’t been too shabby himself. Jack Flaherty has rebounded from two down seasons with his best showing since 2021, sitting with a 3.10 ERA, 3.39 xERA, and 3.41 FIP heading into tonight’s game.
He’s in the exact same percentiles as Cease in whiff rate (91st) and K rate (90th), so this will be a fun matchup if you like watching pitchers fool opposing batters. Flaherty matches his ability for the punchout with a concerted effort to limit free passes, ranking in the 86th percentile in walk rate (5.6%).
San Diego has been on a severe trend to the Under, going 1-8-1 O/U in its last 10 games. The lineup has plated more than five runs just once in that span, and the pitching staff has been remarkably effective.
I’ll bet on the Padres' run toward the Under continuing in a game with two great starting pitchers and two bullpens that rank in the Top 8 in WHIP.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Steal the Sho
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 stolen bases (+250 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Shohei Ohtani is trying to reach the 60 stolen-base plateau. He’s made his endeavor obvious after racking up seven steals in his last six games, and I don’t expect him to stop now.
There was a big hullabaloo when he hit the 50-50 mark with 50 home runs and 50 steals. Well, he’s gunning for more as he currently has 53 home runs and 55 steals, with the season winding to a close.
He may not be able to reach the 60-60 mark, but it looks like he’s certainly going to try. Even if he falls short, 50-60 is more than in play.
Ohtani has a career .978 OPS against Cease, so he’s proven able to get the better of this difficult matchup. All he needs is one time on base and I expect him to try to swipe another bag, so I can’t help but bet on what my eyes tell me is a player doing whatever it takes to reach a statistical checkpoint.
Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Dylan Cease 7+ strikeouts
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
San Diego's starter is a master of the strikeout, averaging 10.74 per nine innings. His 14.6% swinging strike rate is elite for a starting pitcher and is higher than his career average of 13.8%, so it’s evident something is clicking for him in San Diego.
The Los Angeles Dodgers aren’t the easiest team to strike out, but I was encouraged by Cease’s last outing against them when he managed six strikeouts across 5 2/3 IP while allowing just one earned run.
While Cease has impressed me, there’s no one more impressive on the diamond — perhaps ever — than Ohtani. He’s been on fire, averaging 4.2 total bases across his last 10 games. The books have set his total bases prop at 1.5 with even money on the Over, and that’s a price simply too good for me to pass up, given the way he’s trending.
When a player is rewriting the record books and is operating at the peak of his powers, you pay attention.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Padres vs Dodgers live odds
Padres vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +120 | Los Angeles -140
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-185) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Padres vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers have been very profitable at home lately, covering the run line in 20 of their last 30 home games.
- The Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning five straight games and going 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- The Padres have dominated this series lately, taking eight of the last 10 matchups against the Dodgers.
Padres vs Dodgers trend
San Diego is 1-8-1 O/U in its last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
Padres vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, SNLA |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (13-11, 3.58 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (12-7, 3.04 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Padres vs Dodgers weather
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