The perk of the first round featuring so much chalk is that the second round should include some dramatic games, perhaps none more so than the Kentucky Wildcats facing the Illinois Fighting Illini as 1.5-point underdogs.
Across the last month, one of these teams has been distinctly better than the other, and it is not the higher seed. My Illinois vs. Kentucky predictions will trust the Wildcats to make the Illini pay for their woeful defense.
Find out more in my March Madness picks for Sunday, March 23, with tip-off set for 5:15 p.m. ET on CBS from Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum.
Who will win Illinois vs Kentucky?
The criticism should be tempered a touch. Illinois has won five of its last six games, including a victory against Purdue in the regular-season finale. It's also important to note that the Illini were 5-1 against the spread in those five games.
However, a February lull remains a distinct memory, and one hard to shake. Illinois did not just lose to Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Duke — three top-tier teams. No, the Illini were blown out in those three games, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 23.8 points in those three laughers.
While Duke is an excellent 3-point shooting team, Wisconsin is only middling and Michigan State is outright bad from long range. Yet, those three combined to shoot 27-of-59 from deep against Illinois (45.8%).
In that regard, Kentucky is more like Duke, and the Illini’s month of bad defense should end their season, too.
Illinois vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet: Kentucky moneyline (+105 at bet365)
An Illinois Illini fan may argue those were only three games of perimeter defense struggles, but in nine games since Feb. 15, the Illini's defense has ranked No. 120 in the country once adjusted for opponents, per barttorvik.com.
Their critical error? Giving up 39.9% from deep on 31.0% of opposing field goal attempts.
In the 13 games from Jan. 1 to Feb. 14, the Illini held opponents to a more respectable 35.9% from deep and patrolled the perimeter to give up shots from beyond the arc on only 27.0% of opposing field goal attempts.
Even as Illinois has recovered from that three-straight rout streak, opponents making 37.1% of their 3-pointers and taking them on 32.2% of field goal attempts are too lofty of numbers for this defense to survive. How many teams are 5-1 outright and ATS while their defense sits at No. 79 in that stretch?
The Illini have been living too dangerously, and the Kentucky Wildcats will gladly make them pay.
Kentucky took 3-pointers on 41.9% of its shots in SEC play, a sample size deliberately chosen right now to best reflect the level of competition. That may have been a middling rate in the SEC, but it is in the top third of the country. The Wildcats made 39.6% of those threes, the best mark in the SEC.
In a conference that generally did not give up clean looks from beyond the arc, Kentucky found them.
And it will find them against Illinois.
The Illini only survived this weakness in the first round because they outrebounded Xavier by 19 boards. The Wildcats are better equipped to counter that, simply a major conference reality. Battling Illinois on the glass while taking advantage of the Illini’s defensive slippage around the arc should create a small upset in the Midwest Region.
Illinois vs Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
Kentucky moneyline
Koby Brea Over 2.5 threes
Amari Williams Over 8.5 rebounds
Koby Brea has made at least 40% of his threes in all four years of his collegiate career. He averaged 2.4 in SEC play while taking six per game, and he has hit at least three 3-pointers in seven of his last 11 starts. With Illinois giving up too many worthwhile looks, Brea should be the biggest Kentucky beneficiary.
If believing in the Wildcats to advance, there has to be some faith in them rebounding. A quality defensive rebounding team, Kentucky does not sell out for offensive rebounds, in part because it justifiably trusts its players to make their shots.
But to combat Illinois’s excellent rebounding, Kentucky will lean on 6-foot-10 senior Amari Williams, one of the five best defensive rebounders in the country. He had 12 boards in a dominant showing against Troy to open this NCAA Tournament, and he has cleared this particular prop in 10 of his last 17 games.
Mostly, the value in this same-game parlay comes from doubling down on the two keys Kentucky will need to win outright.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Illinois vs Kentucky odds
Illinois vs Kentucky live odds
Illinois vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Illinois -1.5 | Kentucky +1.5
- Moneyline: Illinois -125 | Kentucky +110
- Over/Under: Over 170 | Under 170
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Illinois vs Kentucky betting trend to know
The Wildcats went 7-4 ATS as an underdog this season, as well as 6-5 outright. Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Illinois vs Kentucky
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 5:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Illinois vs Kentucky key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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