The No. 9 seeded Baylor Bears face off against the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on this afternoon.
Since KenPom started tracking analytics, the Blue Devils have the second-highest net rating (38.16) of all time, and my Baylor vs. Duke predictions bet on that dominance to continue in the Round of 32.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this East Region clash on March 23, with tip-off at 1 p.m. ET.
Who will win Baylor vs Duke?
The Blue Devils are -750 favorites and deservedly so since they are the No. 1 team in the country according to virtually every ranking system. They've been elite on both ends of the floor and even with Cooper Flagg on the bench have enough depth to extend leads.
The Bears are coming off a razor-close win against Mississippi State as 1.5-point underdogs. However, that was just their first win as an underdog this season after racking up 11 defeats when catching points. With a steeper hill facing them on Sunday, they won't be able to pull off the massive upset.
Baylor vs Duke prediction
My best bet: Duke -12 (-110 at bet365)
The Duke Blue Devils hammered Mount St. Mary's by 44 points in the opening round, but more importantly, Cooper Flagg looked like his usual stat-stuffing self after returning from an ankle sprain.
It's fair to question the Blue Devils' recent level of competition since they had a cakewalk in the ACC. That said, Duke also defeated Auburn and Arizona earlier in the season — and this young squad has made massive strides since.
Meanwhile, the Baylor Bears have suffered some lopsided defeats when facing top competition, losing by double-digits to Gonzaga, Tennessee, Iowa State, Arizona, Texas Tech, and Houston.
The Bears are 57th in the country in adjusted defense and have been getting torched inside and on the perimeter. They rank 347th at surrendering high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets, while also allowing opponents to shoot a sizzling 69.5% at the rim. That's bad news against a Duke squad that shoots 67.2% at the rim and 37.7% from deep.
On the other side of the floor, Baylor doesn't shoot particularly well. The Bears are 131st in the country in 3-point percentage (34.7) while sitting outside the Top 150 in 2-point percentage (51.2%). They'll have a tough time scoring against a Duke squad that is fourth in adjusted defense and first in opponent effective field goal percentage (44.5%).
The Bears have been rolling with a seven-man rotation that has just one player over 6-foot-5 and nobody taller than 6-foot-7. They'll struggle with the length of the Blue Devils, who have the tallest lineup in the country and 7-foot-2 center Khaman Maluach in the paint.
This is also essentially a home game for Duke since it's taking place at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh. Don't be afraid to lay the points with the Blue Devils.
Baylor vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Duke -11.5
Duke Team Total Over 78.5
Khaman Maluach Over 7.5 rebounds
The Blue Devils have really ramped up their pace lately. They started to significantly up their tempo in the middle of February, scoring more than 90 points in five of their last seven regular-season games.
They slowed down in the ACC Tourney with Flagg sidelined but they picked up the pace again when the freshman phenom returned on Friday. Expect their explosive offense to exploit a vulnerable Baylor defense and cash the team total Over.
Maluach had a modest five rebounds on Friday but also logged just 15 minutes in a blowout win. He had grabbed 9+ boards in his previous six contests and should be able to control the glass against an undersized Baylor lineup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Baylor vs Duke odds
Baylor vs Duke live odds
Baylor vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Baylor +12 (-110) | Duke -12 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baylor +525 | Duke -750
- Over/Under: Over 144 (-110) | Under 144 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Baylor vs Duke betting trend to know
The Blue Devils are 32-14 ATS in their last 46 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Duke.
How to watch Baylor vs Duke
| Region | East |
| Location | Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Baylor vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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