The Round of 32 rarely presents heavyweight bouts like the one in the West Region today.
The No. 1 Florida Gators test their mettle against the defending champion No. 9 UConn Huskies in Raliegh, which looks good on paper. Oddsmakers, on the other hand, have the Gators teetering on double-digit favorites.
I believe that spread is big for a reason, and I like UF to fill it up with my best UConn vs. Florida predictions and March Madness picks on March 23.
Who will win UConn vs Florida?
While UConn could provide a stiff test, the outright odds insist that Florida goes through, giving the Gators an implied win probability of 84%. I have the Gators going through to the Sweet 16 in my bracket.
UConn vs Florida prediction
My best bet: Florida team total Over 80.5 (-125 at bet365)
A quick glance at the UConn Huskies win over Oklahoma on Friday night may lead you to believe the Huskies played lockdown defense in a 67-59 victory.
The truth is Connecticut’s defense was lucky.
The Huskies constantly allowed high-percentage looks, got exposed by the pick-and-roll, and were painfully slow on help defense. But they got let off the hook by an OU offense that just couldn’t finish.
The Sooners blew 15 of their 27 layup attempts (44%) yet still scored 28 of their 59 points in the paint.
The Florida Gators won’t be so cordial.
The Gators enter this Round of 32 date as the top-rated offense in the country and showcased that attack with a squash of Norfolk State in the opening round.
Florida scored almost 86 points an outing and has topped 80 points in 13 of its last 14 games, with that lone miss coming on a 79-point showing.
The Huskies’ biggest weakness is this defense. Connecticut has a ton of size but is plodding on the defensive end and constantly finds itself out of position, either giving up easy looks or getting whistled for fouls.
Dan Hurley’s team sent Oklahoma to the stripe 27 times (OU made 22 FTAs) and ranks 347th in foul percentage per play, gift-wrapping almost 22 free-throw attempts for foes per game.
Connecticut had seven players with three or more fouls on Friday, which makes the defense extra passive in the second half as players try not to foul out.
The Gators go to the line more than 21 times per contest (69th) on the season and have been extra aggressive in drawing calls in recent games, making 24.4 trips to the charity stripe over the last 10 games (11th).
They’ve made 73.4% of those freebies, which is a lot of scoring with the clock stopped.
When UConn isn’t giving up layups and foul shots, it’s getting torched from long distance. The Huskies have the third-worst 3-point defense of any remaining NCAA Tournament team, watching opponents connect on 34.6% of their looks from long range.
The Gators are far from lights-out from beyond the arc, but they will let it fly. Florida knocked down 10 triples in the win over Norfolk State and averages 9.9 makes on 28 attempts from distance (25th).
This Florida Team Total is at 80.5 points, which isn’t too far off the 74.5-point TT the Gators had against Tennessee in the SEC tournament – facing a Volunteers team rated No. 3 in defense and playing one of the slowest tempos in the country (346th).
It’s just above the 79.5-point TT Florida drew against Texas A&M – the No. 9 defense in the country.
Game projections have UF scoring between 77 and 88 points in this Round of 32 matchup, with my number at 84 points knowing the Gators will shoot a high percentage and pick up a ton of points from the stripe with the clock stopped.
UConn vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Florida team total Over 80.5
Will Richard 10+ points
Alex Condon 7+ rebounds
The Gators go after this suspect UConn defense and score plenty of points from the charity stripe.
Richard’s projections call for a 10-plus effort. He can hurt UConn from beyond the arc.
Condon will be battling on the boards against a big UConn team, but is forecasted for at least seven rebounds.
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UConn vs Florida odds
UConn vs Florida live odds
UConn vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: UConn +9.5 (-110) | Florida -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: UConn (+375) | Florida (-500)
- Over/Under: Over 152 (-110) | Under 152 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
UConn vs Florida betting trend to know
Florida has hit the Team Total Over in 23 of its last 36 games (+7.89 Units/19% ROI. Find more college basketball betting trends for UConn vs. Florida.
How to watch UConn vs Florida
| Region | West |
| Location | Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
UConn vs Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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