Mississippi and Iowa State meet at Fiserv Forum tonight with a trip to the Sweet 16 at stake. Tip-off is at 7:45 p.m. ET on truTV.
The Rebels weathered a late storm from North Carolina to get here in a game many (including myself) expected them to lose. Iowa State had a free ride against Lipscomb, as they were blowout victors.
The fun stops for the Cyclones here. Read on for my Mississippi vs. Iowa State predictions and March Madness picks for Sunday, March 23 to see why.
Who will win Mississippi vs Iowa State?
Mississippi. Given it's my best bet, we'll talk about more, but I like what I saw from the Rebels in the first game. Anecdotally, I haven't liked the body language of the Iowa State team for about a month now, but even without that, this isn't the greatest matchup.
I expect Iowa State's backcourt to struggle with the pressure it will be put under. That's a backcourt giving walk-ons rotational minutes after the Keshon Gilbert injury.
Mississippi vs Iowa State prediction
My best bet: Mississippi moneyline (+190 at bet365)
"This will be a real round of 32 game," Mississippi Rebels head coach Chris Beard told assembled media on Saturday. "There are two teams that are worthy to get into the second weekend. We'll have to play our best for 40 minutes."
And he's right. Not all second matchups are created equally. Sometimes, one team meets another with a clear outsized advantage. Sometimes, seeding gives us a matchup we shouldn't. Then, sometimes, you get two teams matching up who are probably both in the Top 16 nationally. That's the case here. With small margins, I lean on coaching and other contributing factors. We're taking Mississippi to pull the upset.
34% implied odds for this Mississippi team to beat this version of Iowa State? I don't think so. The Rebels didn't play particularly great to end the regular season, and even with that, I make the number closer to +140, and that doesn't truly consider the gravity of no Keshon Gilbert on the floor for the Cyclones. Yes, the Lipscomb performance was strong, but we expected that. We discussed how difficult it would be for the Bison to even get into their actions against the heavy ball pressure attack that Iowa State would implement. That's not the same deal here.
Without Gilbert on the floor this season, in "non-garbage time" minutes and against Top 100 opponents, Iowa State has seen its turnover percentage jump from 17.2 to 18.1%. That's not a very large difference, but when you consider there's not a ton of data there, and neither one of those numbers is good, the issues are slightly more alarming.
Mississippi's no-middle defense created havoc in the last ten games of the season. Arriving at this game, the Rebels have posted a forced turnover rate of 31st in the country. However, perhaps just as crucial is that they have the third lowest turnover rate in that timespan. That makes what they've been able to manage in that regard much more impressive. It will be a pivotal point in this matchup, given that Iowa State has been a turnover-reliant team to create easy offense this season. What happens when they aren't getting them?
On the other side of the ball, Iowa State's isolation defense can be exploited here. When facing high-end talent this season, the Cyclones defense has allowed 1.01 points per possession on plays defined as dribble jumpers. That's not good. It's well above the national average of .90 and in the bottom 10 percent of basketball nationally. There is enough shiftiness amongst the Rebel backcourt in Dre Davis, Jaylen Murray, and Jaemyn Brakefield to cause issues here. Ask North Carolina, whom they diced up to the tune of 1.34 points per possession on such sets.
Give me the healthier team here with a few notable advantages.
Mississippi vs Iowa State same-game parlay (SGP)
Mississippi moneyline
Mississippi Race to 20
Jaemyn Brakefield over 10.5 pts
Mississippi to reach 20 points first is a reflection of Beard's coaching advantage in this matchup. It also reflects what we've seen from Beard on a short turnaround. In his five seasons at Texas Tech, he was 5-1 ATS on a one-day rest in the 1H of games. That's a sign of a great prep coach.
We're finishing things off with Jaemyn Brakefield to go over his points total. He's the best dribble creator on the Rebels roster, and as we mentioned, that's a weak spot for this Iowa State defense. Brakefield was quiet to end the season but is coming off a 12-point outing against North Carolina. I'll ride the hot hand.
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Mississippi vs Iowa State odds
Mississippi vs Iowa State live odds
Mississippi vs Iowa State opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi +5 (-110) | Iowa State -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mississippi +190 | Iowa State -230
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 | Under 145.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Mississippi vs Iowa State betting trend to know
Mississippi has hit the moneyline in 23 of its last 34 games (+16.65 Units / 3% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Iowa State.
How to watch Mississippi vs Iowa State
| Region | South |
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
Mississippi vs Iowa State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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