The second round of the NCAA Tournament wraps up on Sunday night with a clash between the No. 5 seeded Oregon Ducks and the No. 4 seed Arizona Wildcats.
This should be a dogfight between a pair of former conference rivals, and my Oregon vs. Arizona predictions are backing the underdog Ducks.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this East Region clash on March 23, with the opening tip at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Who will win Oregon vs Arizona?
Both of these teams clobbered vastly undersized mid-major foes in the first round of the tournament.
Oregon has won nine of its last 10 games and is 6-3-1 against the spread over that span. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 6-6 straight up and 5-7 against the spread in their last 12 games.
The Ducks have surged on defense over the last month, and that combined with Arizona's struggles from long range, should lead to a dogfight. That's why I'm backing the Ducks to come out on top as underdogs.
Oregon vs Arizona prediction
My best bet: Oregon +4 (-110 at bet365)
This matchup has a nostalgic feel as it features a pair of former Pac-12 foes and will take place in Seattle. There's plenty of familiarity between these schools and coaches, which should result in a close contest.
The Arizona Wildcats have struggled from beyond the arc on both ends of the floor. They are outside the Top 200 in 3-point percentage (32.9%) while sitting 349th at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets.
The Oregon Ducks shoot a bit better from deep (34.4 3PT%), and they limit foes to a 31.1 3PT%.
Since the Wildcats won't be able to knock down shots from the perimeter, they'll need to run the floor and attack the rim to get buckets.
However, Oregon does a good job of protecting the rim thanks to center Nate Bittle and Arizona's transition offense has stalled lately. The Wildcats are averaging 9.0 points per game on the fastbreak over their last five contests after putting up 14.7 fastbreak ppg before.
Ducks coach Dana Altman does a great job at making adjustments in a tournament setting on a short turnaround. We've seen that in recent March Madness appearances as well as earlier this season in the Players Era Festival, where Oregon beat Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama in a five-day span.
Oregon vs Arizona same-game parlay (SGP)
Oregon +4.5
Under 153.5
Jackson Shelstad Over 1.5 threes
By the middle of February, Oregon was 47th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 110th in adjusted tempo. Since then, the Ducks rank fifth in adjusted defense and 252nd in adjusted tempo.
With that improved defense and a significantly slower pace, the Under is 8-1 in their last nine games, with the only Over during that span cashing in overtime. When you also factor in Arizona's inability to catch fire from deep, the Under is the play.
Guard Jackson Shelstad is second on the Ducks in scoring with 13.4 ppg. The sophomore has knocked down at least a pair of threes in 15 of his last 20 games and is shooting 43.5% from deep over that span. He'll take advantage of an Arizona defense that doesn't close down outside shooters.
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Oregon vs Arizona odds
Oregon vs Arizona live odds
Oregon vs Arizona opening odds
- Spread: Oregon +4.5 (-115) | Arizona -4.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Oregon +160 | Arizona -190
- Over/Under: Over 153 | Under 153
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Oregon vs Arizona betting trend to know
The Under is 8-1 in Oregon's last nine games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. Arizona.
How to watch Oregon vs Arizona
| Region | East |
| Location | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Oregon vs Arizona key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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