Padres vs Phillies Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Trea Turner's hitting and speed were sorely missed in the Phillies lineup. He returns to the Phils tonight, and our MLB picks are expecting him to make some noise in his first game back.

Ryan Gilbert - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Ryan Gilbert • Betting Analyst
Jun 17, 2024 • 13:53 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Trea Turner Philadelphia Phillies MLB
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The Philadelphia Phillies return home from a long road trip to host the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park on June 17.

Philadelphia has lost two straight series after going across the pond to London, but Trea Turner is set to return to the lineup tonight and my Padres vs. Phillies predictions expect him to get a knock. Find out more in the MLB picks below!

Padres vs Phillies prediction

My best bet
Trea Turner Over 0.5 singles (-130 at DraftKings)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies have battled through their fair share of injuries this season. Catcher J.T. Realmuto just hit the injured list due to knee surgery, and they’ve been without starting outfielder Brandon Marsh. However, shortstop Trea Turner is set to return to the lineup tonight for the first time since suffering a hamstring injury back in May.

It took about 10 games for Turner to settle in this season, but he was on fire when he hit the IL. Turner is batting .343 this season with 12 extra-base hits, and he brought his average all the way up from .222 with a .386 batting average from April 8 to May 3.

Turner’s return gives the Phillies a much-needed reinforcement at the top of the lineup, with the shortstop likely to slot back in at his No. 2 hole between Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.

The oddsmakers expect Turner to get a hit with those odds set at -370, which makes sense given his high batting average. He’s recorded a hit in 27 of 33 games this season, after all. 

However, Turner is just -130 at DraftKings to get a single, with those odds being as high as -180 at FanDuel. Of those 27 games in which Turner has recorded a hit, he had a single in 24 of them. That’s 72.72% of games, and -130 odds imply a 56.52% probability.

Padres vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)

Trea Turner Over 0.5 singles

Phillies -1.5

Over 9.5

The Phillies are returning home just as a heatwave hits Philadelphia. It’s going to be hitting season at Citizens Bank Park, and the Phils should come out swinging.

San Diego Padres starter Randy Vasquez is 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in eight starts. That includes a 5.50 ERA (11 runs in 18 innings) on the road. I expect Philly to pile up the runs and push this total Over tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Padres vs Phillies odds

Padres vs Phillies live odds

Padres vs Phillies opening odds

  • Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-155) | Philadelphia (+130)
  • Moneyline: San Diego +140 | Philadelphia -165
  • Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)

Padres vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Philadelphia Phillies odds opened around -170 but are all the way up to between -185 and -195 as of late Monday morning.
  • In turn, the San Diego Padres odds are up to +160 after opening at +145.
  • The total is set at 9.5 with the Over 9.5 (+100) and Under 9.5 (-115).

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Padres vs Phillies trend

The Phillies have hit the moneyline in 23 of their last 27 home games (+17.15 units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies

Padres vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Monday, 6-17-2024
First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
TV: SDPA, NBCSP
Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez
(1-3, 4.93 ERA)
Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez
(3-3, 3.07 ERA)

Padres vs Phillies latest injuries

Padres vs Phillies weather

Not intended for use in MA.
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Ryan Gilbert - Covers
Betting Analyst

Ryan Gilbert brings the passion and pain of being a Philadelphia sports fan. After graduating from Monmouth University with a finance degree, he now uses his statistical background to find inefficiencies in betting markets. With past stops at NHL.com, NBC Sports, and currently at Covers, Ryan's hot picks blend well with the cold ice of a hockey rink.

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