The San Diego Padres will look for revenge against the Texas Rangers after being shut out on Tuesday night.
However, my Padres vs. Rangers predictions expect more tough sledding for the Friars lineup. Rangers starter Jon Gray headlines my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, July 3.
Padres vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Jon Gray Over 15.5 outs (-105 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Texas Rangers righty Jon Gray has been floundering a bit on the mound of late and was crushed to the tune of eight earned runs on nine hits in just five innings of work against the Orioles in his last start. It was the second outing in three starts where he's allowed eight runs or more after surrendering nine over three frames against the Mets on June 17.
So, why am I bullish about Gray? For one, you can't allow recency bias to affect your perception and understanding of value. Gray's outs-recorded prop is down to 15.5, which is pretty low for a hurler of his stature. You're rarely going to see a veteran of his ilk get the 14.5 outs prop, so this is as low as we can reasonably expect. And the Over is worth the risk.
Gray missed time from late May to early June with a groin strain, and he hasn't been fully stretched out in his five starts since his activation, but he's progressed in the right direction. Even in the game where he got obliterated by the Orioles, Gray threw 73 pitches, the most since returning. He routinely topped 90 pitches and finished six or more innings in four of five starts before being shelved.
The San Diego Padres mustered just two hits in Tuesday's 7-0 shutout loss. With Fernando Tatis Jr. sidelined with an injured femur, the Friars are missing their most dynamic offensive threat. The offense has packed a bit more of a punch in recent games, scoring seven or more runs in five straight last week before totaling one run in their last two.
The Globe Life Field dome will be closed, which will favor Gray as that typically cools the temperature. Neither the humidity nor wind will help Padres hitters clear the deep fences in Arlington, making it more likely Gray can avoid major damage.
And even if he gets knocked around a bit, the Rangers are trusting the process with the veteran RHP and will likely give him a bit of a leash to help stretch his arm back out to where it was.
Padres vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Jon Gray Over 15.5 outs
Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 total bases
Rangers moneyline
Nathaniel Lowe has started to turn a corner — and it's something we're seeing league-wide as offenses start to heat up — as he's hit .333 with two homers over the last six games, tallying 15 total bases in the process. He has the handedness advantage over Padres starter Adam Mazur, who has found next to no success against lefty bats, surrendering a .333/.491/.548 slash line to southpaws over his five starts. It's a big reason why his ERA is 7.25.
With Gray poised to give the Rangers some length and lefties set to terrorize Mazur, I like the Rangers to come out on top and win outright.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Rangers odds
Padres vs Rangers live odds
Padres vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-170) | Texas -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: San Diego +115 | Texas -135
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Padres vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rangers opened at -135 and have been bet up to as high as -150.
- The Padres have gone the other direction and now sit around +125 after opening at +115.
- According to Covers Consensus, the Rangers are taking 63% of the moneyline bets.
- Conversely, the Over 9 is the more popular wager on the total at 59%.
Padres vs Rangers trend
The Texas Rangers have covered the run line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+8.50 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Rangers
Padres vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, Bally Sports Southwest |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Adam Mazur (1-2, 7.25 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Jon Gray (3-4, 3.77 ERA) |
Padres vs Rangers latest injuries
Padres vs Rangers weather
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