It’s a grudge match as the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers meet to decide their three-game series. The Dodgers took Monday’s game 5-3 but the Phillies responded by grabbing the lead early on Tuesday and never looking back.
My Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions expect L.A.'s bats to bounce back against rookie hurler Tyler Phillips.
I look closer at the National League’s two top teams in my MLB picks for Wednesday, August 7 below.
Phillies vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Dodgers team total Over 4.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Tyler Phillips has experienced the peaks and valleys through his first four big-league starts.
The Philadelphia Phillies starter pitched a complete game shutout against the Cleveland Guardians two outings ago, allowing just four hits and a walk while notching four strikeouts. How quickly he fell back down to Earth, recording a measly five outs in his next start while surrendering eight earned on five hits and three walks against the Seattle Mariners.
The 26-year-old rookie isn’t as good as the former start and isn’t as bad as the latter, although it’s hard to feel too good about his chances of throwing many more shutouts after finishing with an ERA north of 4.50 at Triple-A the last two seasons.
He gets a tough assignment on tonight against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Dave Roberts’ squad has been a Top-5 group against RHP on the year and has a 115 wRC+ and .328 wOBA against them since the break.
They’ve managed those numbers despite being without Mookie Betts since June 16, Max Muncy since May 15, and most recently Freddie Freeman for nine days. Well, Freeman is back and the lineup around him is playing well, so this projects as a dangerous group in August.
Shohei Ohtani, Freeman, and Gavin Lux are the constant lefties in the group. Lux has taken his game to another level, posting the sixth-best wRC+ (230) among all hitters since the All-Star break.
Phillips has had severe reverse splits throughout his minor-league career and has been blasted by right-handed bats to the tune of a .302 BA, 1.46 WHIP, and 7.02 FIP. The Dodgers are glad to keep the damage coming with Teoscar Hernandez, one of the sport’s hottest hitters (182 wRC+ since the break, four HR in his last eight games), along with Will Smith.
With 6.9 mph wind blowing out to left field, I’m betting on L.A.’s bats coming to play.
Phillies vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers TT Over 4.5
Gavin Lux Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Dodgers -1.5
Lux has been on fire, recording two or more hits + runs + RBI in 11 straight starts. The same can be said for Hernandez, who is 9-for-20 with three HR, five RBI, and seven runs across his last five games.
Those two are part of the reason why the Dodgers set up well offensively in a winnable matchup against Phillips. L.A. has gone 7-3 in Gavin Stone’s 10 starts at home and he sets up well against a Phillies lineup that’s been dreadful against RHP since the break (74 wRC+ and .274 wOBA).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Dodgers odds
Phillies vs Dodgers live odds
Phillies vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-180) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +120 | Los Angeles -140
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Phillies vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia is just 2-7 in its last nine games. L.A. has been tough to beat at home with a 35-20 record.
- Philadelphia’s bullpen has fallen apart since the break, posting a 4.83 FIP and allowing 1.5 HR per nine innings.
- Both teams are trending toward the Over — Philadelphia is 6-2 O/U in its last eight while LA is 5-2 O/U in its previous seven.
- These teams have combined to go 8-1 O/U in its last nine meetings in Chavez Ravine.
Phillies vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have cashed their Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Dodgers.
Phillies vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Philadelphia, SportsNet LA |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Tyler Phillips (3-1, 4.39 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Gavin Stone (9-5, 3.63 ERA) |
Phillies vs Dodgers latest injuries
Phillies vs Dodgers weather
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