The Philadelphia Phillies will try to make it two in a row at Citi Field as they take on the New York Mets on Tuesday afternoon.
The Phillies (29-13) scored twice in the ninth inning to tie the game before beating the Mets (19-21) in extra innings on Monday, and are again favored to win in this afternoon’s MLB odds.
Philadelphia will send Aaron Nola to the mound to take on Mets rookie Jose Butto. We’ll take a look at who has the edge in our free MLB picks and Phillies vs. Mets predictions for Tuesday, May 14.
Phillies vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies have long wanted Aaron Nola to get back to the ace he looked like in his breakout 2018 season. Unfortunately, they’ve never seen a similar performance since then. Once again, Nola looks like a good but not outstanding pitcher in 2024, where he has put up a 4-2 record with a 3.67 ERA over his first eight starts.
Nola hasn’t looked great over his last two starts, either. In those two outings, he has combined to go just 9 2/3 innings while allowing six earned runs on 13 hits and four walks — good for a 5.59 ERA in that span.
The New York Mets should be able to find some success against Nola on Tuesday. While New York hasn’t been outstanding offensively, it has had most of its success against right-handed pitching, putting up a .689 OPS against a .656 mark against lefties. That makes sense when you consider how many left-handed bats are key parts of the Mets lineup, including Jeff McNeil, Brett Baty, and Brandon Nimmo. Throw in the switch-hitting Francisco Lindor, and New York has plenty of weapons that can hit Nola.
In turn, the Mets are throwing rookie righthander Jose Butto. The 26-year-old is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA, but his 4.08 FIP suggests he’s due for a bit of regression. In particular, he has shown the same control issues that he suffered from during his first two stints in the majors, giving up 4.6 walks per nine innings.
The Phillies are happy enough to take walks, ranking fifth in the majors in bases on balls. They don’t have dramatic platoon splits, though Bryce Harper in particular will benefit from facing a righty without overpowering stuff. In limited action against Butto, the Phillies have hit .300 with an .880 OPS off him, touching up the youngster to the tune of an 8.36 ERA.
This is a matchup where both teams have excellent offensive potential. I’m taking the Over at 7.5 and would still be interested at 8, as some books are moving in that direction.
Phillies vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Phillies moneyline
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases
The Over is my best bet for today, and I see the Phillies doing most of the damage on the scoreboard again. That’s why I’m taking Philadelphia on the moneyline as a part of my same-game parlay. They’re the better team and have the pitching edge, so they are deserving favorites this afternoon.
Up against a righty, I’ll also take Harper to pick up at least two total bases. Harper crushes right-handed pitching, producing a .985 OPS. He’s accumulated at least two bases in four of his last eight games as well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Mets odds
Phillies vs Mets live odds
Phillies vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 | New York +1.5
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -130 | New York +120
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Phillies vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia opened as a -130 favorite at most books. By early morning on Tuesday, the consensus line has moved to around Phillies -140, with +124 available on the Mets.
- The Phillies have been one of the best moneyline teams in MLB this year, winning 11 units for bettors.
- The total opened at 7.5, though some books moved to 8 overnight. Most books are offering -110 on both sides of 8, but at 7.5, you can get -105 on the Under or -115 on the Over.
- The Over has gone 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings between the Phillies and the Mets, and is 4-0 in their last four meetings at Citi Field.
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Phillies vs Mets trend
The Over is 7-2 in the Phillies’ last nine games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs Mets.
Phillies vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLBN |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (4-2, 3.67 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Butto (1-2, 3.00 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mets latest injuries
Phillies vs Mets weather
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