The Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox will play the rubber match of their three-game set at Fenway Park on Thursday night.
Zack Wheeler dominated in the opener leading Philly to a victory, but the Red Sox were able to outslug the Phillies in Game 2. However, with Aaron Nola toeing the rubber against Tanner Houck, I’m betting tonight more closely resembles Game 1 with my eyes on the total.
Phillies vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
As we saw last night, both of these teams are capable of putting up runs, but the old adage in baseball is that good pitching beats good hitting and I’m betting that holds true tonight. Aaron Nola takes the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight and with the way Zach Wheeler and Ranger Suarez have been pitching, Nola has become a little overlooked — but he shouldn’t be.
Nola is having one of the best seasons of his career, pitching to an expected ERA of 3.29, and has been an absolute workhorse averaging just over 6 1/3 innings pitched per start.
His numbers are even better when you take away his slow start. The veteran right-hander has a 2.37 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .179 batting average over his last 10 starts. That includes a complete game shutout of the Mets and he’s coming off seven dominant innings against the Brewers where he gave up no runs on just two hits.
Countering Nola for the Boston Red Sox is Tanner Houck and the 27-year-old right-hander is having a breakout season. Houck has been a dominant force for the Red Sox rotation pitching to a 3.24 expected ERA and is among the American League leaders in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Houck also has a complete-game shutout this season, coming against the Guardians back on April 17, and has held opponents to one earned run or fewer in eight of his 13 starts.
Those two won’t be the only dominant pitchers in this game. The Phillies and Red Sox employ two of the best bullpens in baseball. Philly ranks second in xFIP and strikeouts per nine while Boston ranks fifth and 12th, respectively, in those categories.
Pitching will be the story and this total of 8.5 is just a touch too high.
Phillies vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 RBI
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Just because I expect the pitchers to have the edge in this ball game doesn’t mean everyone will go hitless. I also like a player from both teams to go over a player prop in this matchup, starting with Nick Castellanos. The former All-Star has been slumping for much of the season but he looks like he’s turned a corner, hitting .292 with a .958 OPS, three homers, and seven RBI over his last 12 games.
Hitting in this deep Phillies lineup means you'll have lots of opportunities to drive in runs and that’s starting to happen more frequently for Castellanos. Our Covers Prop Projections have the Over on his RBI as a five-star play today.
For the Red Sox, let’s look no further than their best player — Rafael Devers. The BoSox third baseman continues to be one of the best players in baseball, hitting .282 with a .928 OPS, 13 homers, and 32 RBIs.
He's in a groove right now where he’s doing it all. He has six extra-base hits among 11 total hits over his last 10 games and has driven in six runs while scoring another eight of his own. Let’s add Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI. These contrarian props mean a big payday if this SGP hits.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Red Sox odds
Phillies vs Red Sox live odds
Phillies vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+135) | Boston +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -115 | Boston -105
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Phillies vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Red Sox opened this interleague matchup as slight home underdogs at -105. There has been a little action on Philadelphia but the line generally remains around the opening number.
- The Phillies enter this game with an NL-best record at 46-21 in addition to the best run differential at +109. They've also won seven of their last 10 games.
- The total hit the board at an even 8 and has been bet up to 8.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
- That number is now high enough for me to like the Under and both Philly and Boston have been solid Under teams this season going 28-35 O/U and 29-35 O/U, respectively.
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Phillies vs Red Sox trend
Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 55 games for +6.30 Units and a 10% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Red Sox
Phillies vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, NESN |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (8-2, 2.78 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (5-5, 1.85 ERA) |
Phillies vs Red Sox latest injuries
Phillies vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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