It’s Paul Skenes day as the precocious hurler leads the Pittsburgh Pirates against the Houston Astros tonight.
Monday’s meeting will be Game 1 of a three-game interleague series between two teams in a playoff hunt and my Pirates vs. Astros predictions like a low-scoring affair.
See exactly what I fancy for my Skenes Day MLB picks on Monday, July 29.
Pirates vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Just how good is Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Paul Skenes? The flamethrower has set the baseball world ablaze with a 1.93 ERA through his first 12 starts in the big leagues, earning the nod as the National League’s starting pitcher in the 2024 MLB All-Star Game.
The burly baseballer has allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his last seven starts. He’s a master of the strikeout, recording at least eight Ks in eight of his last nine while posting a 34.2% K rate on the year.
The underlying metrics all love him as well. The LSU product ranks above the 90th percentile in xERA (2.55), xBA (.203), and walk rate (4.6%). He faces a Houston Astros lineup that hasn’t been anything special against RHP lately, ranking 24th in wRC+ (89) and 25th in wOBA (.293) since July 7.
Another rookie takes the mound on the other side as Jake Bloss makes his fourth appearance. A third-round pick out of Georgetown last year, he’s similarly been fast-tracked to the Show.
It’s easy to see why — he dominated all levels of the minor leagues with his ERA never finishing above 2.76. He’s still very green and will need to work through some struggles after throwing only four innings at Triple-A before getting roughed up for a 6.94 ERA through his first three starts in the MLB.
Still, there are reasons for optimism. He’s forcing hitters to make soft contact with an 86.9 mph average exit velocity and 30% hard-hit rate. His 11.3% swinging strike rate and 33.3% chase rate are encouraging and indicate that he’s keeping batters off balance.
This is a good matchup for him to build confidence at home against a Pirates lineup with an 83 wRC+ and .288 wOBA against RHP. Both numbers rank ahead of only the miserably inept Chicago White Sox and that’s frankly not good company to keep in 2024.
Pirates vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Paul Skenes Over 7.5 strikeouts
Pirates moneyline
Skenes is posting 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings and is facing a Houston lineup that hasn’t performed well against RHP lately, so he forecasts to pitch deep into this game and perform well per usual. He’s set a high standard and has gone 7-1-1 to the Over on his strikeout prop across his last nine starts.
He gives Pittsburgh a substantial starting pitching advantage and Bloss is unproven at this level. The Pirates are 8-4 in games where Skenes starts, so I’ll buy at this price.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Astros odds
Pirates vs Astros live odds
Pirates vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+105) | Houston +1.5 (-125)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -160 | Houston +135
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Pirates vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Targeting Pittsburgh on the first five innings (F5) moneyline might be worth a look. Houston has cashed the F5 moneyline in just 41 of its last 93 games
- Both teams are trending to the Under this season — Pittsburgh is 47-55 O/U while Houston is 42-59 O/U.
- Pittsburgh’s lineup has routinely fallen short of expectations, cashing the team total Over in just 42 of its last 100 games.
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Pirates vs Astros trend
Pittsburgh is 1-6 O/U in Paul Skenes’ last seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Astros
Pirates vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Monday, 7-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet-Pittsburgh, SCHN |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Paul Skenes (6-1, 1.93 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Jake Bloss (0-1, 6.94 ERA) |
Pirates vs Astros latest injuries
Pirates vs Astros weather
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