The Pittsburgh Pirates snatched Game 1 away from the Chicago Cubs, and the NL Central rivals will hit the diamond again tonight.
Pittsburgh has rookie superstar Paul Skenes set to face the North Siders for the fourth time this season, but my Pirates vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for September 3 are more focused on the strikeout ability of Kyle Hendricks.
Pirates vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Kyle Hendricks Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Pittsburgh Pirates ambushed Kyle Hendricks last time out, and the veteran North Sider allowed six earned on eight hits and a walk through just 1 2/3 frames. It’s one of the reasons we’re landing a fair price on his strikeout total tonight.
Hendricks has been anything but consistent — or sharp, for that matter — this season, but he’s still flashed strikeout potential in spurts and has four or more punchouts in nine of his 19 starts. I also value Hendricks strikeout numbers climbing at Wrigley Field. His 7.09 K/9 and 17.9% K rate are higher than his 5.21 and 13.1% road numbers.
Additionally, his 6.05 K/9 and 15.2% K rate don’t lag too far behind last year’s 6.11 and 16.1 marks. It’s just opposing hitters sport a .299 batting average and .319 BABIP against him in 2024. Hendricks held hitters to a .252 average and .283 BABIP last year, and there’s potential for positive regression from the righty given Pittsburgh’s struggles at the dish.
The Pirates are strikeout happy and send out one of the worst offenses in the bigs against righties, with their 23.9% K rate ranking ninth highest and .292 wOBA third lowest. Pittsburgh also ranks eighth highest with an overall 25.2% strikeout rate since the All-Star break and it's 26.6% over the past 30 days.
Finally, I also value this Over because the market has already begun moving in that direction at multiple shops, and it’s a five-star recommendation from our MLB player prop projections. The leading projection system (THE BAT) also cites projected umpire Doug Eddings favoring pitchers.
Paul Skenes pick: Paul stalls
My best bet
Paul Skenes Under 6.5 strikeouts (+110 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Pittsburgh brass have already discussed being cautious with Skenes’ pitch counts through the end of the year, and the rookie threw a season-low 82 pitchers during last week’s start against the Cubs. Skenes was solid in the outing, but he left after five frames and finished with six strikeouts.
Chicago has been more disciplined at the dish during its 12-4 run with a sixth-best 19.4% K rate and a fourth-ranked 9.8% walk rate, too. The Cubs also have an MLB-high wOBA (.353) while averaging the most runs per game (7.25) during the heater.
Finally, the strikeouts have dipped from Skenes down the stretch. He’s had six or fewer in four of his past six starts with a declining 10.2 K/9 and 28.5% strikeout rate, and both metrics are well below his respective 11.69 and 34.2% marks across his first 12 starts of the campaign. Skenes’ xFIP has also climbed from a pedestrian 2.32 through his first 12 trips to the bump to 3.50 across his past six.
Pirates vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7 runs
Kyle Hendricks Over 3.5 strikeouts
Paul Skenes Under 6.5 strikeouts
As noted, Hendricks struggled last time out, and there’s little to be confident about with his abysmal 6.75 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. While I expect him to pitch deep enough into Tuesday’s game to hit fan four or more batters, expectations of him holding the Pirates offense in check should be tempered.
I’m anticipating the Cubs having a little success against Skenes, too. As noted, the rookie hasn’t been as sharp across his past six outings, and he’ll give way to a bad bullpen. Pittsburgh relievers rank 27th with a 4.61 ERA and 25th with a 4.34 xFIP, and they’ve been even worse through the past 30 days with 5.84 and 4.72 ratios.
Finally, I also recommend this same-game parlay through DraftKings for two reasons. The total is at 7.0 while most books have it at 7.5. Additionally, it’s priced at +555 through FanDuel with the 7.5 total, so there’s an extra out if the two teams don’t top seven runs, and the +625 DraftKings odds are notably better. The difference checks out as a positive expected value of 11% to the +625 DraftKings price.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Cubs odds
Pirates vs Cubs live odds
Pirates vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +110 | Chicago -120
- Run line: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+165) | Chicago +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)
Pirates vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There was a huge move to the Pittsburgh side of this moneyline following the announcement Cubs lefty Justin Steele wouldn’t be starting.
- Chicago opened as a -118 favorite at Pinnacle and is trading at +120 as of Tuesday morning. The adjustment was similar at bet365, with the Cubs moving from an opening -120 to +115.
- The total has also seen minor moves at both shops.
- Pinnacle has a 7.5 number with the higher vig on the Under after testing a 7.0 number. This game opened with a 6.5 total through bet365 late Monday night, but it moved to 7.0 first thing Tuesday morning, with the Over taking the majority of the action and carrying the chalk.
Pirates vs Cubs trend
Kyle Hendricks has recorded 7.09 K/9 and a 17.9 K rate at Wrigley Field this season compared to 5.21 and 13.1% marks on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs.
Pirates vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet-PIT, Marquee Sports Network |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Paul Skenes (8-2, 2.23 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Kyle Hendricks (3-10, 6.75 ERA) |
Pirates vs Cubs latest injuries
Pirates vs Cubs weather
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