MLB Player Props for 7-23: Best Bets for Aaron Judge, Jameson Taillon, & Logan Gilbert

Prop bet #1: Judge RBI

It’s good to see the All-Star break didn’t mess with Aaron Judge’s timing at all. The American League MVP odds favorite has three multi-hit games, a home run, and four RBI in his first four games out of the break and I’m not sure New York Mets starter Jose Quintana is the guy to slow him down.

Judge enters the opener of this latest Subway Series hitting .311 and leading the AL in on-base percentage (.435), slugging percentage (.676), OPS (1.111), home runs (35) and RBI (89) and stunner, his numbers improve vs. southpaws.

The Yankees slugger sees his numbers bump up to .315 and 1.250 when digging in against left-handed pitchers this season, and Quintana is not a great one anymore.

The 35-year-old lefty had a good run for about a month, but things came crashing down in his last start before the break, allowing five earned runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Colorado Rockies, and the overall numbers aren’t pretty.

Quintana is pitching to a 5.17 expected ERA while surrendering a .281 opponent expected batting average. Those both rank in the Bottom 10% of the league. And while it isn’t a huge sample size, Judge is 2-6 in his career vs. Quintana, good for a .352 xBA and a.708 xSLG.

Judge has been the definition of run production this season, and has at least one RBI in four of his last seven games. Plus, our Covers Prop Projections love this play at this price, grading it as five stars.

Aaron Judge prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+135 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Taillon earned runs

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon could be on the move before next week’s trade deadline, but for now, he’ll take the mound as the Cubs take on the National League Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

Taillon has been solid, if unspectacular, for the Cubbies this season. The 32-year-old right-hander has pitched to a 3.71 expected ERA while allowing a .252 opponent expected batting average. Those rank in the 58th and 37th percentiles this season. See, unspectacular. 

This will be Taillon’s fourth start against the Brewers this season. The first was excellent, and the last two have been so-so, allowing a combined seven runs (six earned) on 10 hits over 12 innings. And despite that one good start, Taillon doesn’t have great overall numbers against this Milwaukee lineup. Current Brewers batters have a .271 xBA and a .455 xSLG against him.

On top of that, the Brewers have been hitting the ball well for the last month. They've plated 4.83 runs per game over the last 30 days and rank sixth in batting average, 10th in OPS, and ninth in wRC+ during that period.

Taillon’s earned runs allowed prop is sitting at 2.5 with the Over at solid plus money. He’s gone Over this number six times in his last 11 starts, and at this price, I’m betting he makes it seven of 12.

Jameson Taillon prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (+130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Gilbert hits allowed

Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert earned his first All-Star selection thanks to a first half that saw him pitch to a 2.79 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, and I like him to keep throwing heat when he takes the mound against the Los Angeles Angels tonight.

Gilbert has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, with a 3.11 expected ERA and limiting opponents to a .226 expected batting average. He's been even better since the start of June. 

The 27-year-old right-hander owns a 2.10 ERA and has held opponents to a .168 batting average over his last eight starts. That includes dominating this same Angels team in his last start before the break. Gilbert threw seven scoreless innings while giving up two hits and striking out nine.

It helps that the Halos have really struggled when facing right-handed pitching. Los Angeles ranks 24th in batting average, 25th in OPS, and 26th in WRC+ vs. righties this season. 

Gilbert’s hits allowed prop is on the board at 4.5, with the Under sitting at nice plus money. He’s stayed below this number in five of his last six starts and 12 times in his 19 starts this season.

Logan Gilbert prop: Under 4.5 hits allowed (+125 at bet365)