Sunday’s rubber match of the three-game series between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros features two of the best right-handers in the American League West.
The Rangers' probable starter, Nathan Eovaldi, is the slight MLB odds underdog when he faces Cristian Javier in their series-deciding afternoon affair.
Can the Rangers pull off the upset? Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks and Rangers vs. Astros predictions on Sunday, April 14.
Rangers vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Rangers F5 moneyline (+114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Texas Rangers ace Nathan Eovaldi dominated the Houston Astros during their 2023 postseason run to their first World Series in club history.
Eovaldi responded from a horrible 1 1/3-frame September home start against Houston by surrendering five earned runs over 12 1/3 frames across two away victories in the ALCS and faces that same Houston lineup today. The veteran righty is 3-0 over his previous three starts against this Astros lineup in Space City and has an excellent chance to replicate his postseason glory on Sunday afternoon.
Eovaldi has figured things out against Houston by replacing an ineffective changeup with a curveball while slinging more splitters. Astros hitters Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez struggle mightily with the splitter, which should allow the Texas righty to handle the top half of the Houston lineup.
Texas has a nice matchup against starter Cristian Javier. The Astros righty can’t consistently blow the four-seamer by Corey Seager or any other Rangers hitter, so he must rely on his off-speed stuff, which hasn’t been effective recently in their head-to-head matchups.
The Rangers score the third-most runs with the lowest strikeout rate and sixth-best walk rate against right-handed pitching in baseball. Javier is off to another strong season, but his lack of a real heater will hurt him early against the top half of the Rangers lineup.
Eovaldi has figured something out regarding the Astros and has not only been lights-out in his previous two outings against Houston, but is 4-1-0 against the ‘Stros at Minute Maid Park dating back to 2015. The Rangers righty is a bulldog facing a lineup he’s dominated in the past, and I expect this trend to continue on Sunday.
Rangers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Rangers F5
Over 9
Rangers moneyline
Big scoring has been a hallmark of this series, with each game ending Over the total. The Over/Under record for their last 10 games is 7-2-1 to the Over, and these Top 5 wRC+ offenses can score runs.
I love Texas against the gassed Houston bullpen, and I fully expect the Rangers to win this game. While Houston has a 3-2-0 edge in this season's series, the Rangers are 5-1 in their last six meetings at Minute Maid Park, boast a better bullpen, and Eovaldi is 4-1-0 in his past five starts in Space City.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Astros odds
Rangers vs Astros live odds
Rangers vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 | Houston -1.5
- Moneyline: Texas +112 | Houston -121
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Rangers vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Even though Houston won big on Saturday, we’ve seen some money come in on Texas, which makes sense. Texas is 5-0 over Eovaldi’s last five away starts, and the Astros bullpen is a mess.
- The best number available on the Over is 8.5 (-130), while most U.S. markets report Over 9 with odds from +100 to -105 based on .20 cent lines.
- The Over is 6-1-1 in Javier's last eight starts vs. American League West opponents.
Rangers vs Astros trend
Rangers are 5-0 in Eovaldi's last five starts as a road underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros
Rangers vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 1.45 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Cristian Javier (1-0, 1.10 ERA) |
Rangers vs Astros latest injuries
Rangers vs Astros weather
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