The second installment of this AL series gets underway on Saturday evening with the Cleveland Guardians hosting the Texas Rangers at Progressive Field. MLB odds have this game as a pick ‘em, while the total sits at 8.
My Rangers vs. Guardians prediction is optimistic about the home team, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, August 24.
Rangers vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Guardians moneyline (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Right-hander Jon Gray takes the mound for the Texas Rangers, and he should be a good fade candidate. Through 21 appearances on the mound this season, Gray possesses a 3.75 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
Those certainly are not the worst numbers in the world, but his underlying metrics are much more concerning. The right-hander sports a 4.45 xERA and ranks in the 17th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
This expected regression is likely to come to fruition against the Cleveland Guardians, a team Gray is 1-2 against with a 4.15 ERA through five career meetings. Meanwhile, right-hander Ben Lively gets the ball for Cleveland.
Lively outranks Gray in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. The pitching edge for the Guardians doesn’t end there, considering that they boast the best relief staff in baseball.
This season, Cleveland’s bullpen ranks first in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. On the other hand, Texas ranks 23rd or lower in each of those three categories.
The Guardians are also the superior hitting team, considering that they outrank the Rangers in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
Rangers vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians moneyline
Josh Naylor Over 0.5 hits
Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 hits
If we are backing the Guardians to win, then we need them to record some hits in the process. There are two strong candidates to help us in that department, starting with Josh Naylor.
Naylor has recorded nine hits over his past 13 games and boasts a strong track record against Gray. Through 18 career plate appearances against the right-hander, Naylor boasts a .395 xBA, .645 xSLG and .488 xwOBA.
The same is true for Jose Ramirez, who sports a .304 xBA, .466 xSLG and .405 xwOBA through 14 plate appearances against Gray.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Guardians odds
Rangers vs Guardians live odds
Rangers vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas +101 | Cleveland -110
- Run line: Texas +1.5 | Cleveland -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Rangers vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This game opened as a pick ‘em and remains at that price.
- I project this line to move in Cleveland’s direction, given all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 8 and has seen little movement.
- I believe that this total is more likely to move to 7.5 than 8.5, given that both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.
Rangers vs Guardians trend
Texas has lost in three of Gray’s five career starts against Cleveland. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs Guardians.
Rangers vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
BSSW, BSGL
|
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Jon Gray (5-4, 3.75 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Ben Lively (10-8, 3.68 ERA) |
Rangers vs Guardians latest injuries
Rangers vs Guardians weather
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