The defending World Series champion Texas Rangers are under .500, 4-8 in their last 12, and just got swept by the Brewers. They face an uphill battle if they want to turn their fortunes around as they head to Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday night.
The Orioles are 50-30, although they enter this series on a 1-5 skid, and send staff ace Corbin Burnes to the hill. While my Rangers vs. Orioles predictions for June 27 are not bullish on a Texas victory, I'm making Josh Smith the center of attention in my MLB picks as he looks to win his battles with Burnes at the plate.
Rangers vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Josh Smith Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Josh Smith was an uncharacteristic 0-for-5 with four strikeouts in the Texas Rangers' series finale with the Brewers, but I'm calling for a bounce-back game for arguably the team's most reliable hitter vs. Corbin Burnes and the Baltimore Orioles. I'm specifically targeting Smith to get to two combined hits, runs, and RBI, which is being offered at plus money.
Smith ranks 17th in the majors in batting average (.294) and had at least one hit in six of his last seven games prior to Wednesday's debacle. Three of those hits were dingers, and if he hits another one tonight, that will cash this bet automatically.
Of course, Smith only has seven homers in 238 ABs in 2024 and faces Burnes, who is allowing less than one home run per nine innings. But there's more than one way to clear Over 1.5 H+R+RBI.
The Texas offense has been far from dormant over its last eight games, averaging 4.5 runs per game. Wyatt Langford, who typically bats behind Smith, has a team-leading seven RBI in that stretch. Ahead of Smith in the order is Corey Seager, who has scored four runs in this sample.
Smith is a matchup nightmare for Burnes, who tosses his cutter nearly 45% of the time. Smith is batting .333 vs. cutters this year, and while his .250 batting average vs. curveballs (Burnes' next-most frequent offering at 21.4%) is not all that noteworthy, his .400 average vs. sliders (Burnes' No. 3 pitch at 15.8%) is.
Rangers vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Josh Smith Over 0.5 hits
Ryan O'Hearn Over 0.5 RBI
Over 7.5
50% boost available
Placing this same-game parlay at BetMGM is a no-brainer with today's 50% bonus offer for MLB SGPs. The H+R+RBI market can't be lumped into SGPs, so I'll just lean on Smith in the hit department to get things started.
Ryan O'Hearn has an excellent matchup with Rangers RHP Jon Gray, and I'll take the O's left-hand hitting specialist to notch another crooked number in the RBI column tonight. O'Hearn has five games with at least one run driven in over his last seven starts.
O'Hearn is typically sandwiched between Adley Rutschman, who boasts a 1.000 OPS over the last week, and Anthony Santander, who has 12 homers in June, forcing Gray to pick his poison.
Finally, Over 7.5 is a natural addition to this SGP. The Rangers offense hasn't been moribund during its chilly win-loss run, and Burnes has yet to go past seven innings this season (two starts with 100 or more pitches out of 16). Texas will eventually get to a Baltimore bullpen that's solid but not spectacular, ranking ninth in xFIP (3.67) and 20th in strand rate (68.5%) in June.
Gray has been eased back since suffering an injury at the end of May and still hasn't hit the century mark in terms of pitch count this season. His 18th percentile rank in hard-hit rate vs. this lineup could mean a brief but laborious evening for him. Expect plenty of work for a mediocre Rangers relief corps (3.71 ERA in June, 11th).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Orioles odds
Rangers vs Orioles live odds
Rangers vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 | Baltimore -1.5
- Moneyline: Texas +180 | Baltimore -197
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Rangers vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore opened in the -200 range across the sports betting landscape, and the action has been heading toward them, with the O's trading as low as -225 as of Thursday morning. Even the plus odds on the Orioles run line have evaporated.
- The O's advantage in the starting pitching battle is surely influencing the wagering. The Orioles have hit the F5 moneyline in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.70 Units / 15% ROI).
- The total has seen some interesting movement since opening at 8.0, as it touched 8.5 briefly at FanDuel but otherwise trended down across the board until 7.5 was reached, and that's where it stands as of Thursday morning.
- The Rangers have been one of the best Under teams in baseball (30-47), while the Orioles have been one of the best Over squads (41-29).
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of a sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Rangers vs Orioles trend
The Rangers have hit the F5 team total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.95 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Orioles
Rangers vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSW, MASN |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Jon Gray (3-3, 3.03 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (8-3, 2.35 ERA) |
Rangers vs Orioles latest injuries
Rangers vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
