After splitting the first two games of the series, the Tampa Bay Rays head into Game 3 after losing to the Milwaukee Brewers 8-2 in Game 2.
Despite the Rays’ struggles this season, the MLB odds have them as a road favorite against the NL Central-leading Brewers.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Rays vs. Brewers predictions on Wednesday, May 1.
Rays vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
William Contreras Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
After not being named an All-Star in his first season with the Brewers, William Contreras has come back with a vengeance this season. The Milwaukee catcher is far and away the best bat on the roster.
Contreras leads the team in hits (40), doubles (7), every slash line stat (.345/.418/.534), and total bases (62). He’s flashed the power, too, with five home runs in 29 games, second most on the team.
The one-time All-Star is seventh in the NL in OPS (.952) and 11th in the majors in WAR (1.6), and has the Brew Crew looking like a World Series contender. Heading into Game 3 against the Rays, Contreras can continue his dominant play with Zach Eflin taking the mound for Tampa.
While the 30-year-old Eflin is coming off a career year, he’s had a slower start this season with a 4.08 ERA and just 7.6 SO/9. The 6-foot-6 righty is going to struggle with a bat like Contreras, who excels against his go-to pitches.
Eflin has three pitches he uses more than 15% of the time, with his sinker (38%) being his favorite in his arsenal. That’s just fine with Contreras, who is batting .440 with a .600 SLG against sinkers this season.
Obviously, Eflin will want to use his sinker less in this matchup, but his other options aren’t much better. He uses his curveball 21.5% of the time and his cutter 18.8% of the time.
Contreras is mashing curveballs like prime Ryan Braun with a .500 average and 1.000 SLG. He’s not too shabby against cutters either, he’s batting .300 with a .700 SLG against them. That leaves Eflin with few options against Contreras’ hot bat.
Even if he were to dip down to his sweeper (13%) or four-seamer (7.9%), Contreras is more than competent against both. He hit .281 against sweepers last season and is batting .333 with a .515 SLG against four-seamers this season.
Rays vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
William Contreras Over 1.5 total bases
Willy Adames Over 0.5 hits
Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 hits
It won’t just be Contreras finding success against Eflin; Willy Adames matches up well, too. The Brewers shortstop is batting .417 against sinkers this season and is second on Milwaukee in hits with 30.
If Contreras and Adames find success, Tampa will need Randy Arozarena to bring his best after some early-season struggles. The outfielder is off to a quiet start to the season, and hasn’t had a hit in three straight games. We’re banking on him getting right against Colin Rea. Rea’s go-to pitches are his sinker and cutter, two pitches Arozarena batted over .290 against last season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs Brewers odds
Rays vs Brewers live odds
Rays vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+135) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -105 | Milwaukee -115
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Rays vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rays opened as a -115 to -127 road favorite after losing to the Brewers in Game 2. The line is now anywhere from -120 to -133, with most books offering Milwaukee at even-money.
- The Brewers are a respectable 18-11 this season, first in the NL Central, but have lost three of their last four. Tampa Bay is just 14-17, last in the AL East, with seven losses in its last nine.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 8.5, with most books coming down to 8. A few books have the Over at plus-money.
- Milwaukee is the best Over team in the MLB so far this season, hitting it in 18 of 29 games, while the Rays aren’t far behind at 18-13.
Rays vs Brewers trend
The Rays have hit the Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.85 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs Brewers
Rays vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSUN, BSWI |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (1-3, 4.08 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Colin Rea (2-0, 3.25 ERA) |
Rays vs Brewers latest injuries
Rays vs Brewers weather
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