It’s a tale as old as time for the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays. Get out to a lead, supported by some solid starting pitching, and watch the bullpen come in to throw the game away.
It happened again last night as the Jays dropped the latest game of their series to the Boston Red Sox, 6-5, in extra innings after holding a 3-0 lead through six.
Don’t be shocked when my Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, September 25 focus on the first five innings once again.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays -0.5 F5 (-109 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Yes, the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen gave yet another game away this season, and if the Jays want to be a better team in 2025, that must be addressed. But that’s a matter for the offseason, and we’ve got a game tonight to focus on.
The Blue Jays hand the ball to Kevin Gausman and after a rocky start in the first half of the season, the veteran right-hander has found his groove.
Gausman has looked much more like the guy the Jays have relied on the past two seasons at the top of their rotation. He is pitching to a 2.31 ERA while limiting opponents to a .196 batting average over his last eight starts.
And while Gausman had a couple of so-so starts against the Boston Red Sox back in June (part of his rocky beginning), he actually has solid advanced numbers against this lineup. Current Red Sox batters have combined for a .205 expected batting average and a .382 expected slugging while striking out a big 35.2% of the time.
With Gausman throwing well, he is set up to be successful against this lineup tonight.
Boston will counter Gausman with rookie Richard Fitts. While Fitts is making just his fourth career start, he has stormed into the big leagues. The 24-year-old has yet to give up an earned run on 13 hits over 15 2/3 innings.
However, there is some data to suggest he’s been a little lucky to this point. Fitts doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, striking out just 11.1% of the batters he’s faced. He is also using his fastball nearly 45% of the time, which is typical of an inexperienced starter, but it has been a very hittable pitch.
While opposing batters have just a .174 batting average and a .217 slugging percentage, the xBA and xSLG are .312 and .502, respectively. Toronto’s lineup has cooled off a bit down the stretch, they still rank 11th in batting average and 16th in wRC+ since the start of September.
I like the young Blue Jays lineup to sit on some of those fastballs and stake Gausman to an early lead. But once again, you can’t trust that Toronto bullpen, so keep your bet to backing them on the five-inning run line.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+145 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
I wanted to make a joke about NOT betting on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to drive in an RBI tonight. But the play is above this text so, spoiler alert, we’re going back to that well.
Vladdy cashed this bet for us once again last night thanks to a two-run double. He now has 102 RBI on the season and has driven in at least one run in six of his last 11 games. Yet sportsbooks keep giving us value with this prop.
The other reason to like Guerrero to get another RBI in this spot is the matchup against Fitts. Guerrero has a .316 xBA and a .506 xSLG when facing fastballs this season.
To top it all off, Vladdy is also in one of his patented grooves. He’s hitting .400 with a 1.061 OPS with two homers and six RBI over his last eight games.
If you keep giving me value, I’m going to keep betting it, and our Covers prop projections say this is a five-star play today.
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays live odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +120 | Toronto -140
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-185) | Toronto -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as -140 home favorites and that's where the line sits as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Toronto's edge in starting pitching is enough to have me leaning in their direction. But a bullpen that ranks 27th in xFIP after coughing up yet another late-game lead last night keeps me betting the five-inning market instead.
- The total hit the board at an even 8 and it has also not seen much movement to this point.
- While both starters enter this game pitching well, it's reasonable to expect some regression from Richard Fitts at this point. With two shaky bullpens, it's hard to trust an Under at this number.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have covered the F5 run line in 27 of their last 47 games for +5.00 Units and a 9% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Sportsnet |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Richard Fitts (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (13-11, 3.91 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Red Sox vs Blue Jays weather
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