Just as quickly as the Arizona Diamondbacks stormed up the National League wild-card standings, they’ve fallen into a position of peril after dropping a second straight game to the San Francisco Giants.
Arizona's offense is in a better spot today and our Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions like the Snakes to bite Mason Black.
Let's get into it with our latest MLB picks for Wednesday, September 25.
Giants vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Diamondbacks team total Over 4.5 (-130 at DraftKings)
My analysis
San Francisco Giants starter Mason Black had a tantalizing start to his year down in Triple-A, and after struggling upon his first big-league promotion in May, he’s been a bit tidier with a 3.72 ERA in four outings since his return.
But that could be smoke and mirrors, as he still owns a brutal .268 expected batting average and .443 expected slugging percentage to sit well above the league averages. He’s at least been an average strikeout arm and has walked just 3.8% of batters, but he's struggled to limit power all season long and it doesn’t appear like much has changed on that front.
The Arizona Diamondbacks rank third in OPS to fly-ball pitchers and continue to do damage with a .201 isolated power in the last two weeks. It’s been a clean approach across the board for Arizona, which has hit for average, limited strikeouts, and walked at a 9.8% clip over that span, so it should have a fair chance of getting to Black even with his recent results.
Zac Gallen, meanwhile, has recovered after posting a 5.02 ERA in July and August. His September ERA stands at 3.00 with a stellar .219 xBA and a robust 31.4% strikeout rate. He’s walked 10.5% of the batters he’s faced, however, many of which came against the Giants at the start of September when he pitched six no-hit innings, allowing no runs and striking out eight with an unsightly — and uncharacteristic — four walks.
The Giants are walking in just 6.4% of their plate appearances over the last two weeks, however, and still own a 26.7% strikeout rate. Yes, they’ve slugged incredibly well, but just how often they’re able to get the ball in play and get runners on base remains to be seen.
The Diamondbacks are deserving favorites, and out of our price range, so we’ll need to be creative. I like playing the Over here on their team total with Black struggling to contain fly balls inside the yard and yielding a wealth of power to opponents. Arizona has slugged all season long and should continue to do so.
Giants vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Diamondbacks TT Over 4.5
Ketel Marte 2+ total bases
Zac Gallen Over 6.5 strikeouts
Ketel Marte, who checks all the boxes, is the bat to back today. He’s red hot with seven hits in 13 at-bats over his last four starts, homering in three of those plate appearances with two doubles.
Marte has hit .325 against fly-ball pitchers with 11 doubles and a team-high 14 home runs, and he’s also going to see a ton of sinkers here — a pitch he’s produced a .514 xSLG against with a .303 xBA.
I’m also a fan of Gallen’s strikeout prop, considering he’s hit this number in five of his last six starts including one against San Francisco. The Giants are striking out nearly 27% of the time over the last two weeks, and Gallen’s struck out more than 31% of the batters he’s faced this month.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Diamondbacks odds
Giants vs Diamondbacks live odds
Giants vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: San Francisco +180 | Arizona -220
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-115) | Arizona -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Giants vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Diamondbacks opened up as -220 favorites, moving slightly to -225 early Wednesday.
- DraftKings reports that 36% of the bets but 67% of the money are on the Giants.
- The total remains at the opening line of 8.5, with some slight action towards the Under for most of the betting window.
- The Over has accounted for just 44% of the tickets, but 93% of the handle.
Giants vs Diamondbacks trend
The Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 80 away games (+14.35 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Diamondbacks.
Giants vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Bay Area, ARID |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Mason Black (0-4, 7.07 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Zac Gallen (12-6, 3.61 ERA) |
Giants vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Giants vs Diamondbacks weather
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