The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies have split the first two games of their series and meet for the finale at Citizen Bank Park on Wednesday.
Yesterday's Over pick hit easily, with 14 runs scored, and my Cubs vs. Phillies predictions are backing more runs this evening.
See why our top MLB picks expect both sides to continue the output on offense.
Cubs vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Over 8.0 runs (-107 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies combined for 14 runs in Tuesday’s game, and Chicago sends mediocre righty Javier Assad to the bump. He’s been the definition of serviceable, with a 4.20 ERA that should be higher given his 4.93 xFIP, .310 BABIP, and 79.2% strand rate across his past 16 starts.
Assad has served up a healthy 40.3 hard-hit rate during the stretch, and he’s also been teed up for a .301 batting average and .379 wOBA across his past eight starts on the highway.
The Phillies remain in the running for the No. 1 seed in the NL, and despite clinching the division on Monday, they still sent out the majority of their regulars Tuesday. Philly also sports a ninth-ranked .317 wOBA against righties for the campaign and an overall .330 mark in September — that’s the fourth-highest in baseball.
Chicago should also have success against Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez. The Cubs have averaged 5.18 runs per game with a seventh-ranked .328 wOBA in September, and they send out a lineup that primarily features right-handed hitters.
Still, it’s the Phillies and their MLB-leading 53-27 home record that’ll do the heavy lifting Wednesday.
Cubs vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5 runs
Phillies five-first innings moneyline
Javier Assad Over 2.5 earned runs
I give the Phillies a huge starting-pitching advantage Wednesday and expect them to put runs on the board against Assad. In addition to his previously highlighted ho-hum stretch and road struggles, Assad has also surrendered three or more earned runs in four of his past five starts. On the flip side, look for Sanchez to largely hold the Chicago bats in check during his first two trips through the lineup.
Similar to most starters, Sanchez’s 5.63 ERA in his third trip through the lineup is far higher than the respective 2.80 and 2.08 marks in his first two turns through the order.
Finally, there’s also a huge edge in the odds for this same-game parlay through bet365. DraftKings has this SGP priced at just +194 with an 8.0 total, so there’s both a lower total and a positive expected value of 9% available at bet365.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Phillies odds
Cubs vs Phillies live odds
Cubs vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +155 | Philadelphia -190
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-140) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Cubs vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn’t been significant early action to this moneyline at either Pinnacle or bet365.
- I suspect the Phillies will receive betting support leading into the opening pitch, but they’re already a sizable home favorite, and the lack of early action indicates the opening prices weren't too far off the mark.
- After early money came in on the Under 8.0 at bet365, there has been buyback on the Over, and similar movement to the Pinnacle odds.
Cubs vs Phillies trend
The Chicago Cubs have hit the game total Over in 21 of their last 31 away games (+13.30 Units / 39% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Phillies.
Cubs vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, NBCS-PHI |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (7-5, 3.34 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (11-9, 3.25 ERA) |
Cubs vs Phillies latest injuries
Cubs vs Phillies weather
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