Mets vs Braves Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Matt Olson is red hot at the plate and considering his history against David Peterson, our MLB picks expect that success to continue tonight.

Todd Cordell - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Todd Cordell • Betting Analyst
Sep 25, 2024 • 11:20 ET • 4 min read

MLB

Match starts: 6 hrs
ATL
75 %
NYM
25 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Matt Olson o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120) Matt Olson o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120)
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Matt Olson Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the New York Mets in the second of a three-game series with immense playoff implications. The Braves took the series opener by a 5-1 scoreline and are now within striking distance of the Mets, sitting just one game behind in the race for a Wild Card spot.

My Mets vs. Braves predictions see New York in for another tough night against their division rivals. Let’s take a closer look with my September 25 MLB picks.

Mets vs Braves prediction

My best bet
Matt Olson Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120 at DraftKings)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
Matt Olson is scorching hot at the dish. He’s recorded at least two hits + runs + RBI in 10 of the past 13 games, averaging 2.92 per game in that span. It's not been the best season for him but he's looking like the Olson of old at a time when the injury-plagued Atlanta Braves need him the most.

Olson finds himself in a good spot to continue his success against David Peterson. Olson is sporting a .260 ISO and .261 batting average vs. left-handed pitchers this season. Those are much better numbers than he has managed against righties (.201 ISO, .240 average).

Peterson’s having a nice campaign for the New York Mets but he seems to have hit a wall of late. He’s allowed four runs in two of his past three starts and at least six hits in four of the last five games. Opponents are hitting him around pretty good.

Beyond a red-hot Olson having favorable splits, history also tells us he’s likely to make noise against Peterson. He has 19 career plate appearances vs. Peterson and has piled up four home runs — yes, home runs — and 11 RBI in that time. Insane numbers.

Look for Olson to continue his success Wednesday night.

Mets vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)

Matt Olson Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI

Michael Harris Over 0.5 hits

Braves +2.5

Olson isn’t the only Braves bat worth targeting in this matchup. Michael Harris is another guy whose numbers really pop off the page. He owns a .289 batting average against left-handed pitchers and is legitimately one of the hottest bats in the majors right now.

Harris has hits in nine of his past 10 games, over which time he’s piled up a total of 19. That’s one shy of 2.0 per game on average. With so many key Braves out of the lineup due to injury, Harris finds himself at the top of the order and he’s taking full advantage of it.

Adding the Braves on an alternate run line of +2.5 is a nicely correlated way to add more to the return while also making the parlay eligible for the 30% boost. Chris Sale has allowed two runs or fewer in 24 of his past 25 starts. The Braves have a good bullpen behind him as well. If the Braves make any noise at the plate, they’re very likely to cover even in defeat.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mets vs Braves odds

Mets vs Braves live odds

Mets vs Braves opening odds

  • Moneyline: New York +150 | Atlanta -180
  • Run line: New York +1.5 (-140) | Atlanta -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Mets vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis

  • The moneyline has remained completely stagnant since opening. bet365 has held firm with the Braves as -180 favorites.

  • We’ve seen very modest movement on the total. Under 7.5 opened at -110 and now has a -115 price tag attached.

  • The Braves have covered the run line in 21 of their last 35 games for +6.55 units and a 14% ROI.

  • The Braves have cashed the moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games for +3.70 units and a 6% ROI.

Mets vs Braves trend

Matt Olson has averaged 3.6 hits + runs + RBI over his past 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.

Mets vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Wednesday, 9-25-2024
First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
TV: SportsNet New York, Bally Sports South
Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
(9-3, 3.08 ERA)
Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale
(18-3, 2.38 ERA)

Mets vs Braves latest injuries

Mets vs Braves weather

Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell - Covers
Betting Analyst

Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.

 

When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.

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