The Houston Astros clinched their fourth consecutive AL West Title with a dramatic 4-3 come-from-behind victory Tuesday over the Seattle Mariners.
Seattle still has something to play for this afternoon, and righty George Kirby, who has a strong history of dominance over Houston, will help keep this score low in our Mariners vs. Astros predictions.
I explain why my MLB picks are backing the Mariners on Wednesday, September 25.
Mariners vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Under 7 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Seattle Mariners righty George Kirby has dominated the Houston Astros. Across 34 2/3 frames and six career starts, Kirby is 1-0 with a 1.56 ERA, surrendering only six earned runs without one bomb.
Kirby has been particularly filthy against Houston this season. The 26-year-old righty has given up three earned runs in 18 innings for a 1.50 ERA. His four-seamer, cutter, and slider have been too good against a strong Astros offense.
The Mariners righty is coming in hot, winning four of his last five starts, and could get an additional boost as it’s quite possible Houston may not be raring to go after clinching the AL West Crown.
Houston acquired lefty Yusei Kikuchi from Toronto at the deadline and got a gem. The Astros are 9-0 with Kikuchi on the bump, and the lefty has been dominant, with 35 punchouts across 32 1/3.
Kikuchi has dominated this collection of Mariners, scattering three hits with nine punchouts and an earned run this season while still with Toronto.
The bats won’t catch many breaks from either bullpen. Both have been better than average down the stretch, and this game will be another low-scoring beauty.
Mariners vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7
Mariners moneyline
Julio Rodriguez 2+ total bases
The Mariners have already won the season series, but they need to win this series, otherwise, their slim wild-card hopes are history.
Seattle is 4-1 in Kirby’s previous five road starts, and Julio Rodriguez is hitting .310 on the road against lefties. He’s cleared his total bases prop in three of five with an average of 3.33 total bases over his last 10.
The Mariners are 4-2 in their previous six away clashes, while the Astros have played only .500 ball in their last 10 in Space City.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Astros odds
Mariners vs Astros live odds
Mariners vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Seattle -115 | Houston -105
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+140) | Houston +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-105) | Under 7 (-115)
Mariners vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- ML markets completely reversed after Houston clinched. Seattle spiked from +110 to as high as -135.
- Houston is 46-34 at home this season but 17-27 in one-run games, while Seattle is 26-28 in games decided by one run.
- Over/Under markets dipped sharply from the 8.0 opener. You’ll pay less juicy on the Over 7.0 (-105), but the Under is 2-7-0 across their last 10 AL West meetings.
Mariners vs Astros trend
The Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 81 of their last 141 games (+19.00 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.
Mariners vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Root Sports, Space City Network |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | George Kirby (12-11, 3.62 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (9-9, 4.19 ERA) |
Mariners vs Astros latest injuries
Mariners vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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